Outlook for 2018 – will it become a “TBE year”?
The number of TBE cases reported from Central European countries is fluctuating from year to year. The last year was characterized by a relatively high number of cases with significantly more cases than on average.
The Swiss ‘Bundesamt für Gesundheit’ (BAG) has reported a high number of tick bites and TBE cases so far. Until week 22, a higher number of tick bites has been reported compared to the same time period in 2016 and 20171. Until week 24 (June 19, 2018), a total of 105 TBE cases has been registered in Switzerland (52 cases in 2017 in the same time period)2.
In Germany, the number of TBE cases reported until week 23 (June 27, 2018) was 77 compared to 64 for the same time period in 20173.
In Slovenia, 22 TBE cases have been reported compared to 25 cases in the same time period last year until June 22, 2018 (Zoran Simonovic, personal communication).
In Austria, 40 TBE cases have been reported until June 26, 2018 compared to 38 cases last year (Heidemarie Holzmann, personal communication).
In the Czech Republic, reported data are unfortunately so far not valid for 2018 because the TBE reporting system is currently down. The new database system has yet not been fully implemented. However, it seems as if clinicians observe a higher number of TBE patients this year than usual (Daniel Ruzek, personal communication).
One can draw the conclusion that 2018 may become again a year with a relatively high number of TBE cases and other tick-borne diseases in Central Europe, if the observed trend continues. That would be congruent with the forecast carried out by Brugger et. al.4 who have calculated 2018 becoming a “good” tick year.
References
- Bundesamt für Gesundheit.
Zeckenübertragene Krankheiten – Lagebericht Schweiz
BAG-Bulletin, 24/2018, page 7-9
www.bag.admin.ch - Bundesamt für Gesundheit.
Meldungen Infektionserkrankungen. Stand am Ende der 24. Woche (19. 06. 2018)
BAG-Bulletin, 26/2018, page 4-5
www.bag.admin.ch - Robert-Koch-Institut
Aktuelle Statistik meldepflichtiger Infektionskrankheiten, Deutschland, 23. Woche 2018 (Datenstand 27. Juni 2018)
Epidemiologisches Bulletin, 26/2018, page 254
www.rki.de - Brugger et al.
Forecasting next season’s Ixodes ricinus nymphal density: the example of southern Germany 2018.
Exp. Appl. Acarol., https://doi.org/10.1007/s10493-0267-6
We are grateful to Zoran Simonovic, Heidemarie Holzmann and Daniel Ruzek for sharing unpublished information.