Tag - prediction

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Infectious disease predictions for 2015 — Are we making progress?

At the start of the year, Dr John Bartlett made nine predictions for the field of infectious diseases in 2015, ranging from Ebola to epidemics. Although we are only at the halfway point, many new developments have...

28 July, 2015

12 min read

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The Economist explains: How disease forecasts can go wrong

The Ebola epidemic that took off last year in three west African countries—Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone —is finally fading. The last three weeks have each seen around 120 new cases, the lowest level since July 2014...

6 February, 2015

3 min read

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Novel method accurately predicts disease outbreaks

A team of scientists from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) has developed a novel method to accurately predict dengue fever outbreaks several weeks before they occur. The new method, known as...

25 March, 2013

3 min read

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Predict vaccine coverage by modelling

Researchers in Canada are combining mathematics with “social learning” to predict how epidemics are affected by fears – usually unfounded – that a vaccine can harm, so as to improve the design of vaccination...

23 August, 2012

4 min read