Global Health Press

Prof. Dr. med. Heinz–Josef Schmitt

Editor-in-Chief, Global Health Press,
Contact: joe.schmitt@globalhealthpress.org

Daniela La Marca​​

Publisher, Global Health Press, Singapore
Contact: daniela@globalhealthpress.org

April 2026

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March 2026

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Bibliography
Ogoti B, Riitho V, Wildemann J, Mutono N, Mureithi M, Oyugi J, Rodon J, Corman VM, Drosten C, Thumbi SM, Müller MA. Epidemiology and genomic features of MERS coronavirus in Africa: a systematic and meta-analysis review. Int J Infect Dis. 2026;165:108456.

Summary
This systematic review and meta-analysis examined why human MERS-CoV infection appears rare in Africa despite widespread infection in dromedary camels. Following PRISMA guidelines and a registered protocol, the authors searched major databases up to August 2025 for epidemiologic and virologic studies of MERS-CoV in African humans and camels. Fifty-three studies met the inclusion criteria; 31 contributed to the quantitative synthesis. Most were cross-sectional and concentrated in East Africa, particularly Kenya, Egypt, and Ethiopia. Using generalized linear mixed-effects models, the authors estimated pooled proportions for viral RNA positivity and seroprevalence, with stratified analyses by age group, region, and study characteristics, and assessed heterogeneity, publication bias, and robustness via sensitivity analyses. In parallel, they compiled all publicly available clade C MERS-CoV sequences from Africa and performed comparative polymorphism analyses of Spike and accessory proteins against the prototypic EMC/2012 strain and contemporary Arabian clade B5 viruses, focusing on high-frequency, regionally conserved amino acid substitutions.

In dromedaries, pooled MERS-CoV RNA positivity was 6.09%, with markedly higher detection in juveniles under two years (15.29%) than adults (4.51%), and higher RNA positivity in North than West or East Africa. Serologically, overall camel seroprevalence reached 73.67%, with adults showing about 81% and juveniles 36%, consistent with cumulative exposure and waning maternal antibodies. Camel age emerged as a significant predictor of seropositivity, whereas region and setting did not. Human data were far sparser: across 17 human-focused studies, only nine PCR-confirmed MERS cases were documented (six travel-related, three autochthonous), yet pooled human seroprevalence based on ELISA screening was 2.4%, suggesting substantial under-recognized or subclinical infection among camel-exposed populations. The authors posit that surveillance limitations, differences in camel husbandry and slaughter practices, and health system constraints likely contribute to underascertainment.

Genomic analysis of African clade C viruses revealed a suite of characteristic polymorphisms in Spike and accessory proteins that may attenuate zoonotic potential. In Spike, conserved substitutions in the N-terminal domain (V26A, H194Y), receptor-binding domain (e.g., S390F, L450F, L495F/P), S1/S2 region (R626P), and S2 heptad repeat (A1163L/S) could modulate sialic acid or DPP4 binding, protease cleavage, and membrane fusion, possibly favoring camel-to-camel transmission over human infection. Accessory gene changes, including recurrent substitutions and deletions in ORF3, ORF4a, ORF4b, and ORF5, may alter interferon antagonism and innate immune evasion, consistent with previously observed reduced replicative fitness and pathogenicity of clade C strains in vitro and in animal models. The authors stress that these functional interpretations remain hypothesis-generating and require experimental validation. They conclude that Africa’s “apparent paradox” of high camel endemicity, but low recognized human disease, likely reflects a combination of viral attenuation, ecological and husbandry differences, and major surveillance gaps. Ongoing evolution, recombination with clade B viruses in traded camels, and recent detection of a clade B lineage in Africa underscore the need for strengthened One Health–oriented genomic and seroepidemiologic surveillance to detect the emergence of more human-adapted variants.

Comment
This review is methodologically robust and conceptually important, integrating epidemiology with genomics to explain regional differences in MERS risk. However, it remains constrained by substantial heterogeneity, heavy geographic concentration of data in a few countries, and reliance on cross-sectional and ELISA-based serosurveys that may over- or under-estimate true human exposure. The genomic inferences about attenuated zoonotic potential of clade C strains are plausible but still speculative without targeted phenotypic studies. Strengthening longitudinal human and camel surveillance, including standardized serologic cutoffs and functional characterization of key polymorphisms, will be essential to refine risk assessments as MERS-CoV continues to evolve at the human–animal interface.

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Bibliography
Robert Koch-Institut. Warum wir uns impfen lassen und wann wir zögern. Ergebnisse des Forschungsprojekts IMPRESS: Impfverhalten verstehen, Preparedness steigern. Schwerpunkt: Allgemeinbevölkerung. Berlin, Germany: Robert Koch-Institut; 2026. [RKI - Meldungen - Ergebnisse des Forschungs­projekts IMPRESS - Schwer­punkt: All­gemein­bevölkerung]

Summary
The IMPRESS project establishes an annual vaccination acceptance monitoring system for Germany, using an online survey in October 2025 within the RKI “Gesundheit in Deutschland” panel. The first wave included 5,450 adults aged ≥18 years or older, designed to be population-based, and focuses here on the general population (with parallel modules for parents and risk groups). Methodology is structured around the 7C model of vaccination readiness (confidence, complacency, constraints, calculation, collective responsibility, compliance, conspiracy), operationalized via multi-item Likert scales for each construct. Confidence captures trust in vaccine safety/efficacy and authorities; complacency reflects perceived disease risk and need for vaccination; constraints assess practical and psychological hurdles; calculation measures the degree of cost–benefit weighing; collective responsibility taps prosocial motives; compliance covers support for regulations and sanctions; and conspiracy reflects endorsement of vaccine-related misinformation. Descriptive analyses summarize response distributions; comparisons between vaccinated and unvaccinated persons with influenza recommendations use group differences across all 7Cs. Additional modules assess vaccination uptake and intention for seasonal influenza and COVID-19, vaccination-related health literacy (using HLS19-VAC categories), and knowledge and uncertainty about common vaccine myths.

Results show that in the general population, most respondents express moderate-to-high confidence in regulatory authorities and in vaccine safety, but fewer trust the scientific basis of political vaccination decisions, and many overestimate side-effect risks. Complacency is relatively low: a clear majority reject statements that vaccines are unnecessary because their illnesses would be mild, and many report getting vaccinated to avoid severe disease and infection. Constraints are limited; over 70% report actively organizing timely vaccinations, and only a small minority miss vaccines because they are “bothersome,” although relatively few prioritize vaccination over other obligations. Calculation is prominent: most respondents report carefully balancing benefits and risks and deciding to vaccinate when they see no personal disadvantage. Collective responsibility is strong; more than 60% state they vaccinate to protect others, especially vulnerable persons, and consider vaccination a communal responsibility. Compliance, in contrast, is moderate-to-low: about half support authorities using all available means to achieve high coverage, but far fewer endorse exclusion from events or sanctions for non-compliance. Conspiracy endorsement is generally low, though around one-fifth partly agree that health authorities follow pharmaceutical companies’ dictates and remain uncertain about alleged “toxic ingredients” or whether vaccines are worse than the diseases.

Comparing persons with an influenza vaccination recommendation, vaccinated individuals score consistently higher on confidence, risk perception, collective responsibility, and compliance, and lower on constraints, calculation, and conspiracy; all differences are statistically significant. Despite long-standing recommendations, only about six in ten persons with an influenza indication report receiving the 2024/25 flu vaccine, and early uptake for 2025/26 is lower, though about half of the unvaccinated still intend to be vaccinated. For COVID-19, uptake is strikingly low: only about one in ten in the indicated group were vaccinated in 2024/25, and early 2025/26 coverage and intention are even lower, despite ongoing circulation and known protection against severe disease and long-term sequelae. Vaccination-related health literacy is “rather low” on average, with roughly half the population in the lower category; higher literacy is associated with more correct responses to knowledge items. Knowledge about vaccine efficacy is good (most know that vaccines are effective, cannot be replaced by antibiotics, and have contributed to disease eradication), but there is marked uncertainty about myths such as “vaccines cause autism,” “too many too early,” and “vaccines promote allergies,” where 40–50% report being unsure. The report concludes that interventions should build on existing strengths (recognized infection risk, low perceived constraints, prosocial motives) while systematically addressing misinformation, perceived side-effect risks, and low health literacy through coordinated institutional communication, targeted debunking, and easily accessible information.

Comment
This report is a very welcome and timely piece of research that translates a robust psychological framework (the 7C model) into a concrete national monitoring tool for vaccination attitudes and behaviors. It offers unusually rich, practice-oriented insights for tailoring communication and interventions. At the same time, several limitations are important in principle: an online panel may systematically miss hard‑to‑reach or strongly vaccine‑hesitant groups, cross‑sectional self‑reports cannot establish causality, and social desirability may bias key constructs like trust, collective responsibility, and compliance. Nevertheless, precisely because the design is standardized and repeatable, the most important added value may emerge over time. As an annual instrument, IMPRESS may track trends, identify early shifts in confidence, complacency, or conspiracy beliefs, and link these changes to external events or policy measures. Used in this way, it can become a central tool for shaping and continuously refining public health strategies to increase vaccine uptake in Germany, by highlighting which levers (e.g., debunking myths, strengthening health literacy, reducing perceived constraints) are most relevant in different population groups and seasons.

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Bibliography
Hennessey M, Hoang Thi T, Raghwani J, Kim Y, Pham HTT, Nguyen TH, Nguyen HQ, Lynton-Jenkins JG, Banyard AC, Brown IH, James J, Lewis T, Lewis NS, Pfeiffer D, Tomley F, Blake D, Pham Thi N, Conan A, Bui VN, Fournié G. Avian influenza A(H9N2) virus transmission across chicken production and distribution networks, Vietnam. Emerg Infect Dis. 2026;32(2):259-264.

Summary
This cross-sectional study investigated avian influenza A(H9N2) and H5N1 virus circulation in chickens across 50 farms and 52 distribution facilities (retail and wholesale markets, small slaughter points, and industrial slaughterhouses) in four provinces of northern Vietnam between March 2021 and March 2022. A total of 1,682 chickens were sampled using oropharyngeal and cloacal swabs, which were screened by real-time RT-PCR for influenza A and subtyped for H5 and H9; positive H9 samples with low cycle thresholds underwent whole-genome sequencing and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. Only one H5-positive chicken was detected, but H9N2 infection was found in 11.7% of all sampled birds, with markedly higher prevalence in distribution facilities (especially informal slaughter points and retail markets) than on farms. Bayesian hierarchical models showed that bird-level H9N2 prevalence increased several-fold along the production and distribution network, with the highest levels in small slaughter points and evidence that supplying area and trading practices strongly influenced contamination. Phylogenetic analysis assigned all viruses to clade B4.71, revealed limited overall genetic diversity but multiple co-circulating lineages, frequent reassortment, and no strong geographic structure, indicating extensive viral mixing along the network. The authors conclude that risk mitigation and surveillance must address the entire production–distribution chain, not only live bird markets and formal slaughterhouses, prioritizing informal slaughter points and retail markets where viral amplification appears greatest.

Comment
This work illustrates how endemic avian influenza viruses, such as H9N2 in poultry, can silently spread and mix genetically across dense production and trade networks, generating reassortant strains with pandemic potential. Because such networks facilitate continual viral evolution and occasional spillover to humans, avian influenza remains a plausible source of future influenza pandemics.

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Bibliography
Zhang H, Floyd K, Fang Z, Hoffmann FA, Lee A, Froggatt HM, Bharj G, Xie X, Eppler HB, Santagata JM, Wang Y, Hu M, Fox CB, Arunachalam PS, Baric R, Suthar MS, Pulendran B. Mucosal vaccination in mice protects from diverse respiratory threats. Science. 2026; eaea1260.

Summary
The authors address the need for broadly protective vaccines against diverse respiratory viruses and bacteria, motivated by the limitations of pathogen‑specific vaccines in the face of sheer endless numbers and diversity of pathogens, antigenic drift, shift, and emerging pathogens. Building on epidemiologic and experimental evidence that live‑attenuated vaccines (such as BCG, OPV, measles) induce heterologous protection via “trained immunity” and integrated organ immunity, they design a purely synthetic mucosal platform intended to harness similar principles without using live microbes. The candidate vaccine consists of an intranasal PEGylated liposomal formulation (GLA‑3M‑052‑LS) combining a TLR4 agonist (GLA) and a TLR7/8 agonist (3M‑052‑LS) admixed with a model antigen, ovalbumin, delivered in four intranasal doses to mice.

In multiple challenge models, vaccinated mice showed broad and durable protection lasting at least three months against viral and bacterial respiratory pathogens and even a noninfectious allergen challenge. After intranasal SARS‑CoV‑2 B.1.351 challenge at 21, 42, and 90 days post‑immunization, vaccinated mice had less weight loss, reduced lung viral titers, decreased subgenomic RNA, and attenuated histologic lung damage compared with controls. Cross‑protection extended to mouse‑adapted SARS‑CoV MA15 and SCH014 MA15 coronaviruses, with lower lung viral titers and milder pathology. Vaccination also reduced lung bacterial loads after intranasal infection with Staphylococcus aureus and Acinetobacter baumannii and lowered kidney bacterial burden after intravenous S. aureus, suggesting protection beyond the respiratory tract. In influenza‑experienced mice, the same vaccine further decreased bacterial loads, indicating efficacy in immunologically primed hosts.

Mechanistically, the vaccine induced persistent antigen‑specific CD4+ and CD8+ tissue‑resident memory T cells (TRM) in the lung capable of producing IFN‑γ, IL‑2, TNF‑α, and IL‑17A, along with sustained activation and antigen‑presenting capacity in alveolar macrophages (AM) and other innate cells. Flow cytometry and single‑cell RNA‑seq/ATAC‑seq demonstrated long‑lasting upregulation of MHC‑I/MHC‑II and CD86 on AM, enrichment of antigen‑presentation and interferon‑response pathways, and durable epigenetic remodeling with accessible chromatin at antigen‑presentation and inflammatory‑response loci for at least three months. Cytokine profiling showed a largely lung‑localized, transient inflammatory burst with elevated CXCL10, CCL5, CCL2, IFN‑γ, sRANKL, and BAFF in BAL fluid, while systemic cytokine levels remained comparatively low.

Depletion experiments revealed that long‑term heterologous protection required both antigen and T cells: adjuvant alone produced only short‑lived effects, and combined CD4/CD8 depletion abolished protection against SARS‑CoV‑2 and S. aureus and blunted persistent AM activation. Spatial transcriptomics and ligand–receptor analyses showed that vaccination re‑organized lung tissue into an integrated immune network with enhanced communication between T cells, B cells, AM, and epithelial cells; this pattern was lost when T cells were depleted. Functionally, vaccinated mice formed tertiary lymphoid‑like structures near airways within three days of heterologous infection, supporting rapid local T‑ and B‑cell responses, higher pathogen‑specific T‑cell frequencies, increased virus‑specific IgG/IgG2c in BAL, and reduced pro‑inflammatory cytokines associated with cytokine storm.

The authors further demonstrate that AMs are critical effectors of non‑specific protection. Intranasal clodronate liposome–mediated AM depletion abrogated protection against S. aureus. AM from vaccinated mice showed enhanced in vivo phagocytosis of labeled S. aureus, apoptotic/necrotic neutrophils, and virus‑infected epithelial cells, upregulation of activation markers after infection, and transcriptomic signatures indicating improved antigen presentation, chemotaxis, tissue repair, and cell–cell adhesion. RANKL emerged as a key mediator linking T cells to trained AM; its depletion during immunization eliminated protective effects, whereas blocking CD40L, IFN‑γ, or TNF‑α did not.

Beyond infection, the authors tested a house dust mite–induced asthma model. Vaccinated mice displayed reduced eosinophils, ILC2 cells, Th2 cytokine‑producing CD4+ T cells, serum IgE, and mucus hypersecretion, with these effects lasting at least three months. Protection against allergic airway disease was lost when CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were depleted and could be transferred with vaccine‑primed T cells in an OVA–alum asthma model, indicating a central role of vaccine‑induced T‑cell memory in modulating allergic responses.

In the discussion, the authors propose that intranasal GLA‑3M‑052‑LS plus antigen establishes “integrated organ immunity” in the lung by coupling robust TRM formation to RANKL‑mediated, epigenetically imprinted AM training, yielding broad, antigen‑agnostic protection against respiratory viruses, bacteria, and allergens. They argue that, unlike live‑attenuated vaccines with context‑dependent heterologous effects, this synthetic platform offers a programmable, clinically translatable route to universal respiratory vaccines and early pandemic countermeasures, potentially using influenza or SARS‑CoV‑2 antigens to leverage pre‑existing human T‑cell memory.

Comment
The study presents an ambitious concept of a “universal” mucosal vaccine, but the same strong, nonspecific activation and durable reprogramming of lung immunity that make it effective also raise safety questions. The formulation combines potent TLR4 and TLR7/8 agonists in a PEGylated liposomal system, given repeatedly intranasally, leading to broad innate and adaptive activation, persistent changes in chromatin accessibility, and long‑lived TRM and alveolar macrophage phenotypes. Although inflammatory cytokine elevations are largely confined to the lung with lower systemic levels, this intense localized stimulation and durable “trained‑immunity–like” state could, in principle, predispose to chronic inflammation, tissue remodeling, or autoimmunity, especially in susceptible individuals. The mouse experiments do not systematically assess autoantibodies, loss of tolerance, or tissue damage beyond approximately three months, and the authors acknowledge that human mucosal immunity, shaped by lifelong exposures, may respond differently.[ppl-ai-file-upload.s3.amazonaws]​

Mechanistically, RANKL‑dependent crosstalk between T cells and alveolar macrophages is central to long‑term protection, yet this pathway also participates in bone and immune regulation, so chronic modulation in humans could have unforeseen systemic effects. Deliberate induction of tertiary lymphoid structures and enhanced antigen presentation in lung tissue, while advantageous for rapid pathogen control, might under other conditions favor ectopic lymphoid neogenesis and autoimmunity, as known from chronic inflammatory diseases. The platform’s ability to suppress Th2‑driven asthma is encouraging, but its capacity to amplify Th1/Th17 responses and remodel tissue microenvironments means that different antigenic or environmental contexts (for example, concurrent autoantigen exposure, pollutants, or latent infection) might tilt responses toward immunopathology. Because the work relies on a model antigen and controlled challenges in mice, careful, stepwise human evaluation with explicit autoimmunity and immune‑dysregulation endpoints will be essential before broad application.

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Bibliography
Wong V, Fung M, Kendall R, Ivkovic L, Law AW, Mendes D. Cost-effectiveness analysis of bivalent respiratory syncytial virus prefusion F (RSVpreF) maternal vaccine for the prevention of RSV illness among infants in Hong Kong. Int J Infect Dis. 2026;xx(xx):xx–xx. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108503.

Summary
As ViP was our feature topic last week, here we cover the economic evaluation of RSVpreF vaccination in pregnancy in Hong Kong. RSV is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), hospitalization, and death in infants globally, and Hong Kong experiences high RSV-associated hospitalization rates in children under five. A bivalent RSV prefusion F protein vaccine has recently been approved there for use in pregnant women at 32–36 weeks’ gestation to protect infants up to six months of age. The authors model the impact of implementing a year-round maternal vaccination program compared with no intervention from the public healthcare system perspective.

The analysis uses a Markov cohort model following a hypothetical birth cohort of infants from birth to one year of age. ViP is assumed to confer passive protection to infants against RSV-LRTI, with effectiveness informed by the MATISSE phase 3 trial. Efficacy against severe medically attended RSV-LRTI is used as a proxy for protection against RSV-related hospitalization, while efficacy against medically attended RSV-LRTI represents protection against outpatient-managed RSV disease. Protection is modeled to wane with age; in the base case, efficacy is specified up to six months and assumed to decline to zero by nine months.

Epidemiologic inputs are drawn from local and international sources. Age-specific RSV hospitalization incidence is based on a 15-year study from a major Hong Kong hospital. Outpatient RSV encounter rates and age distributions are extrapolated from Singapore and the United States data owing to limited local information. All hospitalized RSV cases are assumed to present as LRTI; among outpatients, a proportion in each age group is assumed to have LRTI. Age- and gestational age–specific mortality uses Hong Kong infant mortality data distributed using US patterns, and an RSV case-fatality rate for hospitalized children from a recent meta-analysis.

Cost inputs (in 2025 US dollars) include the price of maternal RSVpreF vaccination (per dose plus administration) and the costs of RSV hospitalizations and outpatient visits. Hospitalization costs incorporate different lengths of stay and daily tariffs for intensive care and general wards, weighted by the proportion of infants requiring intensive care. Outpatient costs reflect public-sector clinic fees. The base case uses a 99-year time horizon with 3% annual discounting of costs and outcomes to capture lifetime QALY losses from RSV-related infant deaths. Utilities assume infants without RSV have a utility of 1.0; disutility for RSV-related illness and caregiver quality-of-life losses are included. The main outcome is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, evaluated against a willingness-to-pay threshold of one times Hong Kong gross domestic product per capita.

In the base case, maternal vaccination coverage is assumed to be 20% of pregnant women year-round. Compared with no intervention, this program is estimated to prevent about 10% of RSV hospitalizations (113 cases annually), 6% of outpatient encounters (256 cases), and one RSV-related infant death per year. This corresponds to 38 additional discounted life years and 40 QALYs gained in the birth cohort. Direct medical care costs decrease by about 0.3 million US dollars due to fewer RSV episodes, but vaccination program costs of about 2.14 million US dollars yield a net cost increase of 1.84 million. The resulting ICER is approximately 45,800 US dollars per QALY gained, below the GDP-based threshold of 56,840 US dollars, indicating the program would be cost-effective in the base case.

One-way sensitivity analyses show the ICER is most sensitive to four parameters: vaccine effectiveness, RSV hospitalization incidence, vaccine cost, and the RSV hospitalization case-fatality rate. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (1,000 iterations) suggests that at the chosen threshold, maternal vaccination is cost-effective in a modest majority of simulations (about half), highlighting some uncertainty.

Scenario analyses explore alternative coverage levels, perspectives, discount rates, vaccination windows, duration of protection, and lower mortality. At very low uptake (3.9%), the health impact is small, but the cost per QALY remains similar, as both costs and benefits scale with coverage. At high uptake (90%), approximately 46% of hospitalizations and 28% of outpatient visits are averted, with the ICER unchanged in absolute terms but a much larger absolute health impact. When indirect costs (caregiver productivity losses and future productivity from averted deaths) are included, the ICER improves substantially, dropping to roughly two-thirds of GDP per capita. Removing discounting yields a more favorable ICER, while increasing the discount rate to 5% pushes the ICER slightly above the threshold. Assuming a shorter duration of vaccine protection (up to only six months) worsens the ICER; extending waning to 12 months improves it modestly. Using a much lower RSV case-fatality rate based on local data markedly increases the ICER, making the program not cost-effective under that assumption.

Overall, the authors conclude that year-round RSVpreF ViP in Hong Kong is likely to be a cost-effective strategy from both healthcare system and societal perspectives, with impact strongly dependent on coverage and on key epidemiologic and cost parameters.

Comment
This study is a detailed and transparent cost-effectiveness analysis tailored to Hong Kong, using local hospitalization and cost data where available and carefully referencing international sources when local evidence is lacking. The model structure is standard and appropriate for an infant RSV-prevention question, and the authors clearly define their perspective, time horizon, discounting, and willingness-to-pay threshold. The explicit linkage of vaccine effectiveness assumptions to a pivotal phase 3 trial, and exploration of different waning scenarios, strengthens the clinical plausibility of the modeled effects. The inclusion of caregiver disutility and a separate societal-perspective scenario is a further strength, reflecting the real-world burden of infant RSV on families.

One of the study limitations is the reliance on extrapolated epidemiologic and utility inputs from other settings (notably the United States and Singapore) for outpatient incidence, age distributions of infection, and relative risks by gestational age. Also, assumptions about case-fatality in hospitalized infants drive a large fraction of modeled QALY gains; when a lower, locally derived mortality is used, the ICER rises above commonly accepted thresholds. This suggests that the result is sensitive to relatively small absolute differences in rare but high-impact outcomes.

Overall, given a 2% hospitalization rate for children <2 years of life, there is no doubt the benefit of vaccination, and given the cost for ViP compared to the cost of long-acting monoclonal antibodies, in countries with year-round RSV circulation, there is no doubt that RSV-ViP is the method of choice for prevention.

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Bibliography
Kiefer A, Twardella D, Bähre J, Behrens C, Buck T, Eberhardt F, Bangert M, Kramer R, Gerber A, Rosewich M, Schaaff F, Höpner JH, Panning M, Kabesch M, Happle C, Wetzke M. Primary care RSV disease characteristics in infants and young children in Germany, data from the prospective PAPI surveillance network, 2021–2023. Int J Infect Dis. 2026;xx(xx):xx–xx. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108509.

Summary
This prospective, multicenter study describes the clinical characteristics, risk factors, and treatment burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)–associated lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in infants and young children managed in primary care in Germany in the seasons 2021–2023. The authors focus on non-severe RSV disease in the outpatient setting, which represents the majority of RSV infections but is less well characterized than hospitalized cases. The work aims to provide baseline data prior to the broad implementation of new RSV immunization strategies, such as maternal vaccination and long-acting monoclonal antibodies.

The analysis is embedded in the Pediatric Airway Pathogen Incidence (PAPI) network, a multicenter, prospective surveillance platform. Children aged <24 months presenting to one of five pediatric outpatient practices with signs or symptoms of LRTI were consecutively screened between autumn 2021 and spring 2023, covering calendar weeks 40–17 in each RSV season. Inclusion required at least one symptom or sign compatible with LRTI. In total, 1450 children were enrolled; the median age was 12 months, and just over half were male. All underwent nasopharyngeal swabbing, and multiplex PCR was used to detect a broad panel of respiratory viruses, including RSV A/B and rhinovirus/enterovirus, among others.

A viral pathogen was identified in 91% of children. Rhinovirus/enterovirus was the most frequent pathogen, detected in 55% of cases, followed by RSV, detected in 286 children, corresponding to 19.7% of the cohort. RSV showed clear seasonality, with distinct peaks during the observation period, whereas rhinovirus/enterovirus circulated year-round. More than half of RSV-positive children had viral codetections, most commonly with rhinovirus. Demographic parameters, including age, sex, and gestational age, did not differ substantially between RSV-positive and RSV-negative groups.

The study identified household and atopic factors associated with RSV infection. Preschool-aged siblings (0–5 years) were more frequently present in households of RSV-positive children than in those of RSV-negative children. In a multivariable logistic regression model adjusting for age, sex, gestational age, daycare attendance, older siblings, recruitment site, and allergic conditions, the presence of preschool-aged siblings was an independent predictor of RSV infection with a moderate increase in odds. A notable finding was the association between RSV and atopic conditions: atopic eczema and, to a lesser extent, food allergy were more common in RSV-positive than RSV-negative children. Atopic eczema remained independently associated with RSV infection in the adjusted model, suggesting a possible link between atopic status and susceptibility to RSV in this outpatient population.

Clinically, RSV-positive children exhibited a characteristic obstructive airway phenotype compared with those infected by other pathogens. Wheezing, crackles, tachypnea, wet cough, and abnormal auscultation findings such as rhonchi and prolonged expiration were significantly more frequent in RSV-positive cases. Reduced fluid intake was also more commonly reported in RSV-positive children, indicating greater systemic impact. Disease severity was quantified using the Pediatric Respiratory Severity Score (PRESS). While the overall cohort had predominantly mild disease, the proportion of children with moderate-to-severe illness (PRESS >1) was more than doubled in the RSV-positive group compared with RSV-negative children. About one-fifth of RSV-positive children with severe disease required hospitalization, and prior health care utilization for the same episode was more frequent in RSV-positive than RSV-negative cases.

Follow-up of RSV-positive children at 14 and, if needed, 28 days documented a substantial outpatient burden. Nearly all RSV-positive children (96.5%) received pharmacotherapy. The most frequently used treatments were inhaled short-acting beta-agonists, inhaled saline solutions, and antipyretics; antibiotics were prescribed in a small minority. By day 14, roughly one quarter of RSV-positive children had not fully recovered, although by day 28 only a small residual group remained symptomatic. The mean duration of illness was approximately 12 days. A small proportion required secondary hospitalization after enrollment, underscoring that a subset of initially outpatient-managed RSV-LRTI can progress.

In the discussion, the authors emphasize that RSV accounts for about one-fifth of pediatric LRTI in primary care and is associated with a distinct clinical profile and higher morbidity than other respiratory viruses, even outside the hospital setting. They highlight the novel association between RSV infection and atopic eczema as a potential signal of shared pathophysiology or increased susceptibility, while acknowledging the possibility of confounding by health-seeking behavior. The authors argue that these prospective data characterize the outpatient RSV burden in Germany and provide an important baseline against which to evaluate the impact of newly introduced RSV preventive interventions.

Comment
This study addresses an important gap by focusing on RSV disease in the outpatient pediatric setting, where most infections are managed, but surveillance is limited. Its strengths include a prospective design, multicenter recruitment in routine pediatric practices, standardized clinical assessment, and comprehensive multiplex PCR testing for a broad range of respiratory viruses. The relatively large sample size of 1450 children and systematic follow-up of RSV-positive cases allow a robust description of clinical patterns, resource use, and short-term outcomes. The use of a validated severity score (PRESS) adds objectivity to comparisons of disease severity between RSV-positive and RSV-negative groups.

The identification of preschool-aged siblings and atopic eczema as independent predictors of RSV positivity is a particularly interesting contribution. The household effect is consistent with established transmission dynamics and provides practical information for risk stratification in primary care. The association with atopic eczema is novel in this context and hypothesis-generating with regard to shared epithelial barrier or immune mechanisms, especially given the broader literature linking early-life viral infections with later asthma and atopy.

Congratulations to the researchers for this much-needed study, which should be a great starting point for future research, including year-round observation (bi-annual epidemiological pattern?), additional geographies, socioeconomic structure, follow up on children with RSV plus with other pathogens, to mention a few.

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Bibliography
Yezli S, Bonanni P, Dinleyici EC, Thakker D, Kumar V, Leng S, Coste F, Taha M-K. Invasive meningococcal disease rebound in older adults post–COVID-19 pandemic: A targeted literature and surveillance review. Int J Infect Dis. 2026;xx(xx):xx–xx. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108502.

Summary
This targeted literature and surveillance review examines how the epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) has changed among adults aged 65 years and older before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in predominantly high‑income countries. IMD, caused by Neisseria meningitidis, remains a rapidly progressive infection associated with high morbidity, substantial case fatality rates, and frequent long‑term sequelae such as neurologic impairment, amputations, and sensory deficits. The authors emphasize that although IMD has classically been viewed as a disease of infants and adolescents, emerging data support a “tertiary peak” in older adults, who now account for a considerable share of the overall burden and have the highest age‑specific case fatality rates.

The review followed PRISMA principles and used a PICOS‑T framework. A targeted search of MEDLINE and Embase (OVID) identified English‑language, full‑text articles published between January 2021 and June 2024 that reported IMD incidence, case fatality rates, and serogroup distribution by age group around the COVID‑19 pandemic. Of 1,639 records identified, 489 duplicates were removed and 1,104 records excluded at the title/abstract level, leaving 46 articles for full‑text screening. Ultimately, only four peer‑reviewed publications from England, France, and Poland were eligible. To address this limited literature base, the authors incorporated 10 national or regional surveillance reports or data extractions from web portals covering England, France, Spain, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Australia, and the EU/EEA. Data were categorized into three periods: pre‑pandemic (2015–2019), pandemic (2020–2021, with some country‑specific definitions), and post‑pandemic (2022 onward). Where data were only presented graphically, the authors digitized figures.

Across all age groups, IMD incidence fell sharply during the COVID‑19 pandemic, coinciding with widespread nonpharmaceutical interventions such as lockdowns, reduced social contacts, mask use, and enhanced hygiene, as well as disruptions to immunization services. Among older adults, both incidence and the proportion of total IMD cases declined during the pandemic and then rebounded after restrictions were relaxed. In the EU/EEA, IMD cases in adults aged 65 years and older rose from 315 to 463 between 2015 and 2019, and their share of total IMD cases increased from 14% to 19%. After a pandemic‑related decline, older adults accounted for 20% of all IMD cases in 2023, even though overall case counts had not fully returned to pre‑pandemic levels.

Country‑level analyses showed heterogeneous but broadly consistent patterns. France experienced the most striking rebound: cases in older adults almost tripled from 49 in 2021 to 135 in 2023, surpassing pre‑pandemic levels, and this age group reached 27% of all reported IMD cases. England saw an early resurgence beginning in 2020, but absolute numbers and proportions in older adults remained below pre‑COVID values. Spain showed strong pre‑pandemic increases in older adult IMD, a marked pandemic decline, and a 2023 rebound that did not reach previous peaks, with older adults representing around one quarter of cases. Germany returned to, and slightly exceeded, pre‑pandemic incidence in older adults by 2023, with their proportion of cases rising to 24%. In Italy, incidence in older adults remained at about one‑third of pre‑pandemic levels in 2023, and their share of cases declined. The Netherlands, the United States, Canada, and Australia all showed pronounced pandemic‑era declines and partial rebounds that remained at or below pre‑pandemic incidence among older adults.

The review also highlights notable shifts in serogroup distribution in this age group. In the EU/EEA, serogroup W had been most common among older adults prior to the pandemic, but by 2022, serogroup Y had become predominant, accounting for nearly half of older‑adult IMD cases. In France and Germany, serogroup Y began increasing before the pandemic and emerged as the leading serogroup in older adults, with Germany reporting more than 60% of older‑adult IMD due to serogroup Y by 2023 and serogroup B declining. In the United States, serogroup Y reached roughly 70% of cases in older adults in 2023, while serogroups B and W decreased and serogroup C remained the second most frequent. In other settings, such as Italy, Canada, and Australia, serogroup B often remained important, but there were distinct increases in serogroup Y during or after the pandemic period.

Case fatality rates in those 65 years and older were consistently higher than in younger age groups, often in the range of the high teens or above, with some temporal fluctuations between pre‑, intra‑, and post‑pandemic periods and some country‑specific spikes. Overall, the review finds no uniform temporal trend in case fatality but underscores the persistently elevated risk in older adults.

In the discussion, the authors attribute the pandemic‑era decline and post‑pandemic rebound to changed contact patterns, nonpharmaceutical interventions, and a possible “immunity debt” linked to reduced circulation of respiratory pathogens and disruptions in routine vaccination. They also propose that successful meningococcal vaccination programs targeting children and adolescents, combined with population aging and comorbidities, have shifted the relative burden of IMD toward older adults. Cross‑country comparisons between settings with earlier versus later or absent adolescent MenACWY programs are used to support this hypothesis. On this basis, the authors argue for strengthened IMD surveillance, enhanced serogroup‑specific monitoring, and reconsideration of vaccination strategies, including potential targeted vaccination of high‑risk older adults, particularly in the context of a growing role of serogroup Y in this age group.

Comment
It was exciting to observe how reported infections due to the pneumococcus, meningococcus and even STDs and others declined during the COVID19 pandemic, likely as a result of reduced contacts/exposures and NPIs. The review here documents the rebound for one of the many pathogens that had almost disappeared in 2021.  The major strengths of this review include a focused age‑group lens on adults 65 years and older, explicit temporal framing into pre‑, pandemic, and post‑pandemic periods, and integration of both peer‑reviewed studies and official surveillance data from multiple high‑income countries. The consistent signal of a pronounced incidence rebound among older adults and the convergent emergence of serogroup Y as a leading cause in several countries provide a coherent and policy‑relevant narrative. The methods are clearly described, including database choice, time window, inclusion criteria, and the use of digitization tools when primary numeric data were not presented.

As an explanation for the meningococcal rebound, the concept of “immunity debt” and the hypothesized role of adolescent vaccination in shaping older‑adult disease burden are biologically and epidemiologically plausible but remain largely inferential within the data presented, which are descriptive rather than analytic. Alternative explanations—such as changes in diagnostic intensity, competing mortality risks during the pandemic, or coding and notification artifacts—receive relatively limited exploration.

It is evident that

  • The meningococcus is back.
  • adults >65 years are at risk;
  • For this population, serogroup Y is emerging, and
  • In Germany, like elsewhere, the IMD-risk for a person >65 years is still well below 1/100,000.

I am in this age group.  The data indicate that one third of cases are caused by meningococcus B, two thirds by meningococcus A, C, W, Y.  Penbraya (MenABCWY) is licensed but not available in Europe.  Should I take a shot at all, or even two?

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February 2026

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Bibliography
Wollenweber ML, Beyrer K, Baillot A, et al.  The Meningitis and Encephalitis Registry of Lower Saxony, Germany (MERIN) – design and main results of circulating neurotropic pathogen surveillance, 2003 to 2023. Euro Surveill. 2026;31(6):31(6):2500625.

Summary
This surveillance article describes the design, operation, and 21‑year results of the Meningitis and Encephalitis Registry of Lower Saxony (MERIN), a passive, voluntary surveillance system covering Lower Saxony and, since 2011, Bremen, with a combined population of just under 9 million. Established in 2003 after statutory notification for aseptic meningitis ended, MERIN offers free, broad laboratory diagnostics for hospitalized patients with aseptic meningitis, encephalitis, or polio‑like symptoms, aiming to characterize circulating neurotropic pathogens and support polio surveillance.

Between 2003 and 2023, 13,813 patients (34,688 specimens) were investigated; 54.6% were male, and 78.6% were younger than 15 years, with nearly three-quarters of children under 10 and almost half under 5, reflecting the strong pediatric burden of central nervous system infections. Most patients were treated in pediatric wards. Cerebrospinal fluid made up 37.6% of specimens, blood/serum 33.8%, and stool 25.0%, with throat swabs and urine rarely submitted. ​

In 30.2% of patients, at least one causative pathogen was identified; in 69.8%, no pathogen was found, consistent with literature indicating that the etiology of many cases remains unexplained despite extensive testing. Among pathogen‑positive patients (n=4,172), non‑polio enteroviruses (NPEVs) predominated, accounting for 56.9% of diagnoses and occurring in 17.2% of all patients. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (24.1% of pathogen‑positive patients), adenovirus (6.9%), and varicella‑zoster virus (4.6%) were also frequent, whereas herpes simplex virus was detected in only 1.2% of all investigated patients. Tick‑borne encephalitis virus and measles virus were rare, in line with local epidemiology and vaccination.

NPEV subtyping was successful in 54.8% of NPEV infections. Most typable isolates belonged to enterovirus B; 27 genotypes were identified, with echovirus 30, echovirus 6, and coxsackievirus B5 being most common. The system captured known national echovirus 30 and echovirus 6 waves, demonstrating that MERIN mirrors broader German genotype circulation. Enterovirus C and D, including enterovirus D68, were rarely or not detected, and poliovirus was not found, supporting documentation of polio‑free status. ​

Annually, MERIN examined roughly 600 and 900 patients after scale‑up, with peaks in 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2016. Pathogen detection proportions varied by year, with high yields in known outbreak years. A Poisson regression with harmonic terms showed clear summer seasonality in overall pathogens and NPEVs, with marked June–September peaks. During 2020–2021, both detected pathogens and NPEVs declined and seasonal patterns flattened, consistent with reduced circulation under COVID‑19 non‑pharmaceutical interventions, while submission numbers fell less, suggesting high physician acceptance of MERIN.

The authors acknowledge limitations, including voluntary participation, lack of strict case definition, possible selection bias, incomplete clinical feedback, and dependence on the offered diagnostic panel, but conclude that MERIN provides timely individual diagnostics, delineates the spectrum and seasonality of central nervous system pathogens, and serves as an alternative polio surveillance approach in a polio‑free setting.

Comment
This long‑term, laboratory‑based surveillance effort is commendable for sustaining a robust platform over two decades in a disease area that is comparatively rare but often severe and life‑altering, particularly for the predominantly pediatric patient population. By systematically characterizing meningitis, encephalitis, and polio‑like diseases, the authors underscore that low incidence does not equate to low public health relevance when lifelong neurological sequelae are possible. An important added value of this work is that many documented pathogens are, in principle, vaccine‑preventable, including mumps, tick‑borne encephalitis, varicella, and adenovirus, while others, such as Borrelia burgdorferi, are active targets of vaccine development. For non‑polio enteroviruses, the detailed subtype information generated here illustrates both the current diagnostic strength and the need for even more granular genotype‑specific data as future vaccines or other targeted interventions are considered. Overall, this study deserves praise for linking high‑quality clinical surveillance with clear implications for vaccination and pathogen‑specific prevention strategies.

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Bibliography
Norris RS, Egeskov-Cavling AM, Franck KT, Nygaard U, Fischer TK, Johannesen CK. Incidence, risk factors, and costs of neonatal enterovirus hospitalizations in Denmark. Int J Infect Dis. 2026; 164:108417.

Summary
This nationwide, register-based case-control study from Denmark quantifies how often neonatal enterovirus (EV) infections lead to hospitalization, which infants are at highest risk, and what these episodes cost the health system. Over nine years (2015–2023), the authors included the complete national birth cohort of 544,168 neonates and linked multiple high-quality registries using unique personal identifiers. Neonatal EV hospitalizations were defined by either a laboratory-confirmed positive EV test with a temporally related admission or an EV-related ICD-10 diagnosis, with overlap carefully handled to avoid double-counting.

A total of 181 neonates met the EV case definition, corresponding to an incidence of 34 hospitalizations per 100,000 live births. There was considerable year-to-year variation, with peaks in 2018 and 2023, and the highest annual incidence reached 60 per 100,000 live births in 2023. The clinical picture was frequently severe: nearly half of the infants (48%) had central nervous system (CNS) involvement, and 20% had sepsis; 9% had both CNS disease and sepsis. Median length of stay was 3.5 days overall, but longer for CNS and sepsis categories, particularly CNS infection with or without sepsis.

Seasonality emerged as a key determinant. Eighty-two percent of admissions occurred between June and November, with prominent peaks in September, October, and November, and very low case numbers during winter and early spring. The authors also found that neonates who were not first-born had more than twice the odds of EV hospitalization compared with first-born infants, even after adjustment for other covariates. This is consistent with the hypothesis that older siblings, especially those in daycare or school, introduce EV into the household, with subsequent transmission to vulnerable neonates. Gestational age and major perinatal indicators (including Apgar scores and mode of delivery) were not strong drivers of risk, and congenital anomalies were uncommon among cases, suggesting that severe neonatal EV infection can occur in otherwise healthy term infants. The authors emphasize that EV testing in neonates is usually reserved for more severe presentations, particularly suspected meningitis, encephalitis, or sepsis-like illness, so their cohort is likely enriched for severe disease; milder EV infections are presumably underdiagnosed and managed in outpatient settings or not recognized at all.

The economic analysis used diagnosis-related group tariffs (2024 values) to estimate direct hospital costs. Across the study period, total neonatal EV hospitalization costs were approximately €5.3 million, with an average of €29,213 per patient. CNS infections without sepsis were the most expensive category, with mean costs around €41,977 per patient, while combined CNS infection and sepsis had the highest per-patient cost, exceeding €60,000 on average, despite smaller case numbers. Cost peaks in 2018 and 2023 reflected higher case counts and longer lengths of stay, whereas in 2020, during COVID-19, fewer but more severe cases resulted in the highest cost per patient.

The authors acknowledge several limitations, including potential under-ascertainment of mild cases, residual confounding due to limited data on household composition and behaviors, and cost estimates restricted to direct hospitalization costs without long-term sequelae or societal costs. Nonetheless, the use of national data, linkage of clinical and laboratory records, and a matched control group provide robust estimates of incidence, risk factors, and direct costs. The study concludes that while neonatal EV hospitalizations are rare events at the population level, they are clinically significant, seasonally patterned, and economically burdensome, especially when CNS is involved. This, the authors argue, justifies heightened clinical vigilance in late summer and autumn, particularly for neonates with older siblings, and supports consideration of targeted preventive strategies, including exploring EV vaccines and antiviral therapies.

Comment
This study delivers precisely what clinicians and policymakers need for neonatal enterovirus: hard numbers. It confirms that severe neonatal EV disease is uncommon in a high-income setting—on average 34 hospitalizations per 100,000 live births—but when it happens, it is often serious and expensive, dominated by meningitis and sepsis with substantial per-case costs. For bedside practice, the message is straightforward: in late summer and autumn, especially in later-born neonates with older siblings, EV should sit high on the differential for fever, sepsis-like presentations, and neurologic symptoms.

The more provocative question is whether such a rare condition justifies vaccine development. On incidence alone, the answer might appear no: even a perfectly effective neonatal EV vaccine would prevent relatively few hospitalizations per birth cohort in Denmark. However, the picture is more nuanced. First, these data represent only one country; global burden, particularly in low- and middle-income settings with higher transmission and less intensive supportive care, may be substantially greater. Second, the authors rightly highlight that current cost estimates exclude long-term neurologic sequelae after neonatal EV meningitis or encephalitis, as well as indirect societal costs. If future studies demonstrate a meaningful rate of neurodevelopmental impairment, the cost–benefit calculus could shift.

That said, broad-spectrum EV vaccines face formidable technical and programmatic hurdles: antigenic diversity, the need for early-life or even maternal immunization, and competition for resources with pathogens of higher and more clearly quantified burden. The most realistic near-term implication of this work is not a stand-alone EV vaccine, but a stronger case for targeted surveillance, improved diagnostics, and possibly inclusion of EV in multivalent platforms if such technologies emerge. For now, the rarity of clinically recognized neonatal EV in high-income countries argues for cautious prioritization: vigilance and better data first, vaccines only if global burden and preventability are convincingly demonstrated.

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Bibliography
Wang JJ, Schönborn L, Warkentin TE, et al. Adenoviral inciting antigen and somatic hypermutation in VITT. N Engl J Med. 2026;394(7):669-683.

Summary
This mechanistic study investigates why a tiny fraction of recipients of adenoviral vector–based COVID‑19 vaccines (ChAdOx1‑S or Ad26.COV2.S), and some patients with natural adenovirus infection, develop vaccine‑induced immune thrombocytopenia and thrombosis (VITT), a severe prothrombotic syndrome mediated by platelet‑activating antibodies against platelet factor 4 (PF4). The authors hypothesized that VITT arises from a misdirected, boosted immune response against an adenoviral antigen that cross‑reacts with PF4 in genetically predisposed individuals. They combined antibody proteomics and genomics to characterize anti‑PF4 antibodies from 21 patients with VITT, sequenced immunoglobulin light‑chain genes from 100 patients, and systematically mapped antibody binding to adenoviral structural proteins, especially the highly conserved core protein VII (pVII), which binds viral DNA and shares biochemical features with PF4.

Mass‑spectrometric sequencing of purified anti‑PF4 antibodies showed a strikingly stereotyped molecular signature: virtually all pathogenic VITT antibodies used the same immunoglobulin lambda light‑chain family, IGLV3‑21, specifically alleles *02 or *03, and displayed a conserved acidic motif (DDSD) in LCDR2 plus a recurrent somatic hypermutation at position 31 of the light‑chain CDR1, substituting germline lysine (K) with glutamic acid (E) or, less often, aspartic acid (D). In the heavy chain, different IGHV families were used, but HCDR3 length and the presence of an acidic ED motif were highly conserved, generating a strongly negatively charged paratope that can bind the positively charged PF4. Germline sequencing in 100 patients confirmed that position 31 is lysine in all cases and that E/D31 is a somatic mutation rather than a germline polymorphism.

To test functional causality, the authors reverse‑engineered two human recombinant VITT antibodies (CR22046 and CR23004) from patient sequences. These antibodies bound PF4 but not PF4–heparin complexes, and in vitro they activated platelets in a PF4‑dependent fashion. In a human PF4/human FcγRIIa transgenic mouse model, CR22046 caused profound thrombocytopenia (≈80% platelet drop) and thrombosis at typical VITT sites (cerebral venous sinus, splanchnic veins, pulmonary embolism). When the key light‑chain mutation was reverted to germline (E31K), both recombinant antibodies largely lost PF4 binding, required very high concentrations to activate platelets in vitro, and induced thrombosis in only a minority of mice, with platelet counts similar to controls. A second engineered variant that replaced the DDSD motif (alleles *02/03) with the YDSD motif encoded by IGLV3‑2101/*04 abolished PF4 binding and platelet activation, underscoring the requirement for both the specific allele and the K31E/D mutation for full pathogenicity.

To identify the adenoviral trigger, the authors purified antibodies from VITT sera using immobilized ChAdOx1 virions and individual adenoviral proteins (penton, pIIIa, pV, pVI, and pVII). Antibodies against intact virions did not show clonotypes matching the pathogenic anti‑PF4 fingerprint and did not cross‑react with PF4, arguing against a surface capsid antigen as inciting epitope. In contrast, IgG purified against recombinant pVII contained clonotypic species whose light‑ and heavy‑chain CDR3 “barcodes” matched those of anti‑PF4 antibodies from the same patient. These anti‑pVII antibodies cross‑reacted with PF4, and conversely, purified anti‑PF4 antibodies bound pVII. Importantly, anti‑pVII antibodies from a healthy vaccine recipient lacked this cross‑reactivity, indicating that cross‑reactive clones are specific to VITT.

Using a library of overlapping 15‑mer peptides spanning ChAdOx1 pVII, they mapped the shared epitope to a highly basic linear sequence (RYARAKSRRRRIARR) in the central region of pVII. Recombinant VITT antibodies bound strongly to this peptide, whereas the back‑mutated E31K variant bound the peptide more strongly than PF4, supporting the idea that the germline antibody is primarily anti‑pVII and only with the K31E/D mutation acquires high‑affinity PF4 binding. The epitope sequence is nearly identical in Ad26 pVII, providing a structural explanation for VITT after both ChAdOx1‑S and Ad26.COV2.S. Structural modeling showed that the acidic paratope formed by the DDSD motif and E/D31 faces the basic PF4 surface, enabling high‑avidity binding and formation of large PF4–IgG immune complexes capable of clustering PF4 and cross‑linking platelet FcγRIIa receptors, the hallmark of VITT pathophysiology.

The authors integrate these findings into a two‑hit model. First, in genetically predisposed individuals (carrying IGLV3‑21*02/*03), natural adenovirus infection primes B cells specific for the basic epitope on pVII, generating a polyclonal anti‑pVII response with germline K31. Second, during adenoviral vector vaccination (or reinfection), booster stimulation and somatic hypermutation in rare B‑cell clones introduce K31E/D, converting some anti‑pVII antibodies into high‑avidity anti‑PF4 antibodies that still weakly recognize pVII but now preferentially bind PF4, forming pathogenic immune complexes and triggering VITT. The rarity of the required genetic background plus the specific somatic event explains the extremely low incidence of VITT. The authors emphasize that other anti‑PF4 disorders (heparin‑induced thrombocytopenia, CMV‑associated anti‑PF4 disease) likely involve different viral or drug epitopes and may or may not share similar genetic constraints. They propose that redesigning adenoviral vectors to alter pVII or replace it with a non‑mimicking analogue could eliminate this upstream trigger, potentially preserving the platform’s advantages while reducing VITT risk.

Comment
Clinically, this work does not change acute VITT management, but it clarifies why VITT is tightly linked to adenoviral vectors, why it is so rare, and why anti‑PF4 antibodies in most vaccinated individuals are non‑pathogenic. For future products, it provides a roadmap for rational adenoviral vector re‑engineering and suggests that, in principle, genetic or serologic risk stratification might one day identify individuals at highest VITT risk—though such testing is far from ready for routine use.

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Bibliography
Novick DR. A pediatrician’s dilemma—pushing back against CDC guidance in the exam room. N Engl J Med. 2026;394(7):632-633. doi:10.1056/NEJMp2517911.

Summary
In this Perspective, Novick describes a clinical encounter with a long‑standing patient, now a pregnant mother, who refuses all vaccines for her child, citing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as her source of doubt and confusion. The author, a pediatrician with 30 years of experience, finds herself unusually at a loss for words—not because of the familiar content of vaccine hesitancy, but because the CDC, previously her trusted authority, has become the parents’ rationale for rejecting evidence‑based vaccination. The essay is set against the backdrop of a “current administration” that has reshaped the CDC’s vaccine messaging and policies, including implying a link between MMR and autism and weakening recommendations for hepatitis B and other vaccines, thereby undermining long‑standing immunization norms.

In the exam room, the pediatrician attempts to re‑center the conversation with the mother on evidence, reassurance, and shared values, while recommending alternative trusted sources such as the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), her own practice, and local experts. Novick outlines her options: continue to counsel firmly and risk damaging a relationship that spans generations; discharge the family from her practice, an approach that AAP now accepts in some cases; or intentionally “warm the room” and preserve the relationship in hopes of future progress. She chooses the latter in this encounter, pivoting to neutral topics while recognizing the discomfort of walking multiple “fine lines” at once: discrediting federal health agencies while remaining ostensibly apolitical, emphasizing evidence while practicing patient‑centered care, and protecting children while contemplating narrowing her patient panel.

The piece closes with the author’s own “fierce protective instinct,” informed by personal experience with children lost or critically ill from vaccine‑preventable infections, and her fear that the politicization of the CDC will undermine decades of progress in public health.

Commentary
This is a powerful, unsettling snapshot of how politicized guidance from a once‑trusted agency can reverberate directly into the exam room and erode vaccine confidence even among previously hesitant‑but‑persuadable parents. For clinicians, it crystallizes the emerging need to decouple their own authority from that of federal agencies while still advocating strongly—and persistently—for evidence‑based immunization.

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Bibliography
Banooni P, Gonik B, Epalza C, et al; GRACE Study Group. Efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of an investigational maternal respiratory syncytial virus prefusion F protein–based vaccine. Clin Infect Dis. 2026;82(1):e146-e155.

Summary

This phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial evaluated the efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of an investigational unadjuvanted maternal RSV prefusion F protein–based vaccine (RSVPreF3-Mat) in pregnant women and their infants across 24 countries, including both low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs). Women aged 18–49 years with singleton uncomplicated pregnancies at 24⁰/₇–34⁰/₇ weeks’ gestation were randomized 2:1 to receive a single intramuscular dose of RSVPreF3-Mat or placebo. The primary endpoints were efficacy against medically assessed RSV-associated lower respiratory tract disease (MA–RSV–LRTD) of any severity and severe MA–RSV–LRTD in infants up to 6 months after birth, and safety in infants up to 12 months of age. Immunogenicity in mothers and infants and additional efficacy endpoints (e.g., RSV hospitalization, all-cause LRTD) were secondary objectives.

A total of 5345 women were randomized, and 5328 received the study intervention (3557 vaccine, 1771 placebo); 5235 infants were enrolled (3494 vaccine, 1741 placebo). Just over half of participants were from LMICs, and baseline characteristics were generally balanced between groups, apart from a higher proportion of preterm births later observed in the vaccine arm. Trial enrollment and vaccination were stopped prematurely in 2022 after a safety signal of increased preterm birth and neonatal death in the vaccine group was detected; however, follow-up continued to the planned end (6 months postpartum for mothers, 12 months postbirth for infants).

In infants born ≥4 weeks after maternal vaccination (primary efficacy population; 3426 vaccine, 1711 placebo), RSVPreF3-Mat showed substantial protection during the first 6 months of life. Vaccine efficacy (VE) against any MA–RSV–LRTD was 65.5% (95% credible interval [CrI], 37.5%–82.0%), and VE against severe MA–RSV–LRTD was 69.0% (95% CrI, 33.0%–87.6%). VE against RSV-associated hospitalization up to 6 months was 50.1% (95% CrI, −3.6% to 75.8%), with a wide CrI crossing zero owing to the limited number of events. Protection waned over time: cumulative VE against any MA–RSV–LRTD and severe MA–RSV–LRTD remained statistically supported (CrI lower bound >0) until approximately 9 and 7 months, respectively, but by 12 months, VE estimates had declined to 23.0% and 14.8%, with CrIs including zero.

Regional analyses suggested higher efficacy in HICs than LMICs. VE against any MA–RSV–LRTD to 6 months was 75.9% (95% CrI, 46.1%–91.5%) in HICs and 47.8% (95% CrI, −25.8% to 77.3%) in LMICs, with similar patterns for severe disease. The authors note that these subgroup analyses were descriptive and not powered for formal comparisons; potential contributors to lower apparent VE in LMICs include differences in exposure intensity, co-morbidities, and factors influencing transplacental antibody transfer.

Immunogenicity data from a defined subcohort (518 mothers, 571 infants in the vaccine group; 256 and 274, respectively, in the placebo group) showed robust boosting of maternal RSV-A neutralizing antibodies and efficient transplacental transfer. Maternal geometric mean titers (GMTs) rose from approximately 637 (ED₆₀) pre-vaccination to about 9200 one month post-vaccination (geometric mean ratio [GMR] ≈15), and remained ~5700 at delivery (GMR ≈9.6 vs baseline). In infants of vaccinated mothers, RSV-A neutralization GMTs at birth were markedly higher than in the placebo group (≈9500 vs 700), declining over 6 months but staying clearly above placebo values. The geometric mean transplacental transfer ratio of RSVPreF3-binding IgG was ~1.46 in the vaccine group, with ~87% of infants showing a transfer ratio ≥1, indicating active and generally efficient IgG transport. Transfer ratios were numerically lower in LMICs thanin  HICs, but higher maternal titers in LMICs resulted in similar infant titers.

Safety analyses revealed acceptable reactogenicity: solicited local reactions (particularly injection-site pain) were more frequent with RSVPreF3-Mat than placebo, while solicited systemic reactions (fatigue, headache, fever) were broadly similar and usually mild or moderate. Unsolicited adverse events (AEs) within 30 days and serious adverse events (SAEs) up to 6 months postpartum in mothers and 12 months in infants occurred at similar frequencies in vaccine and placebo groups.

However, pregnancy-related AEs of special interest identified a higher rate of pathways to preterm birth (7.0% vs 5.3%) and a higher rate of preterm delivery (<37 weeks’ gestation) in the vaccine group (6.8% vs 4.9%), corresponding to a relative risk of 1.37 (95% CI, 1.08–1.75). Neonatal deaths were also more frequent in the vaccine arm (13 vs 3), predominantly in LMICs, and largely among preterm infants; investigators considered most infant deaths related to prematurity rather than directly to vaccination. No maternal or infant deaths were judged vaccine-related. Despite extensive investigation, no clear biological mechanism linking RSVPreF3-Mat to preterm birth was identified. Given the observed imbalance and its clinical significance, the sponsor terminated further development of this maternal RSV vaccine candidate.

Comment
The above commentary provides a succinct and timely synthesis of how a single lineage, GPSC10, exemplifies modern pneumococcal vaccine escape, and it succeeds in shifting the reader’s focus from serotypes alone to the underlying genomic lineages. Its main strengths are the clear articulation of the three “dangerous” features of GPSC10—capsular switching, invasiveness and multidrug resistance—and the use of diverse regional examples to show how the same lineage can present as different serotypes in different epidemiologic contexts. The tables summarizing GPSC10‑mediated replacement and vaccine coverage against GPSC10‑linked NVTs are particularly useful for policy discussions, making explicit where current higher‑valent PCVs still have blind spots.

However, the evidence base is entirely observational, which means the associations described between PCV use, lineage shifts and resistance patterns cannot, by themselves, establish causality—this is a major limitation of such analyses. That said, the consistent temporal sequence of events across settings and the strong biological plausibility of vaccine‑driven selection make a causal relationship not only plausible but, to many readers, quite convincing. As a commentary, it remains inherently descriptive and depends on previously published genomic and epidemiologic studies without providing new data or quantitative risk estimates. Important issues such as the comparative contribution of GPSC10 versus other lineages to residual IPD, or modelling of the potential impact of pediatric PCV20 or future pediatric PCV21, are only implied rather than explored. The discussion of policy implications remains relatively general; more concrete guidance on surveillance design, data sharing, and how to prioritize serotypes in next‑generation vaccines would strengthen its utility for ministries of health and advisory groups.

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Bibliography
Veeraraghavan B, Varghese R, Gurumoorthy M. Beyond serotypes: Why GPSC10 redefines vaccine escape in the pneumococcal vaccine era. Vaccine. 2026; 74:128238.

Summary
This commentary examines how the pneumococcal lineage GPSC10 has emerged as a prototypical “vaccine‑escape” lineage in the era of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), arguing that lineage‑based genomic surveillance is now as important as serotype‑based monitoring. The authors begin by recalling that PCVs have substantially reduced invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) due to vaccine serotypes (VTs), but their ecological success has been offset by the rise of non‑vaccine serotypes (NVTs), a phenomenon termed serotype replacement. Serotype replacement can occur either by expansion of existing NVTs that occupy the ecological niche vacated by VTs or by capsular switching, whereby a lineage acquires a new capsular locus and thus “changes” serotype under vaccine pressure. Because the same genomic lineage can express both VTs and NVTs, the paper argues that genomic frameworks such as Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs) are essential to understand vaccine impact, disease persistence, and spread.

Within this framework, GPSC10 is highlighted as a lineage of special concern because it combines three properties: ability to undergo capsular switching, high invasive disease potential, and multidrug resistance (MDR). GPSC10 encompasses at least 17 serotypes, including both vaccine and non‑vaccine serotypes (3, 6A, 6C, 7B, 10A, 11A, 13, 14, 15B, 15C, 17F, 19A, 19F, 23A, 23B, 23F, and 24F). Historically, it expanded as serotype 19A, a key PCV7 escape serotype, but after PCV13 introduction, the same lineage has increasingly been expressed as NVTs such as 24F, 10A, and 15B/C in different regions. This allows GPSC10 to evade serotype‑specific immunity induced by PCVs while maintaining its underlying genetic determinants of virulence and resistance. Capsular switching events within the lineage, for example, from serotype 14 to 11A in Indian data, further illustrate its adaptive capacity.

The commentary then dissects the three core attributes that make GPSC10 a vaccine‑escape threat. First, serotype replacement and capsular switching together alter serotype distribution over time; under vaccine‑induced selective pressure, NVTs that are carried by successful lineages can expand and undermine overall vaccine effectiveness, especially when they are more virulent or resistant. Second, GPSC10 has demonstrated high invasiveness, particularly in its 24F expression. In France, GPSC10‑24F has been disproportionately associated with meningitis compared with other NVTs, highlighting that lineage replacement is not just about carriage prevalence but also about disease propensity. Third, the lineage frequently carries MDR to penicillin, cotrimoxazole, macrolides, tetracycline and sometimes fluoroquinolones, enabling it to thrive under antibiotic pressure and expand once PCVs reduce competing VT lineages. In South Africa, the expansion of GPSC10 lineages expressing serogroup 24 and 10A has paralleled rising MDR rates, while European GPSC10‑24F isolates likewise harbor multiple resistance determinants

Geographical and strain‑level factors in lineage expansion are discussed, drawing heavily on recent genomic and epidemiologic studies. After PCV introduction, VTs show reduced relative fitness while NVTs gain a growth advantage, consistent with serotype replacement dynamics. GPSC10’s particular advantage lies in combining both VT and NVT expressions with MDR traits. Early PCV roll‑out reduced penicillin resistance by targeting classical resistant VTs, but subsequent expansion of resistant NVTs has eroded this benefit. Modelling work incorporating human mobility suggests that most pneumococcal strains initially spread locally, but later generations increasingly disseminate to distant municipalities; large urban centers act as hubs, and variants originating in rural areas may ultimately travel farther, patterns that have implications for GPSC10 spread.

Regional snapshots illustrate how GPSC10 has manifested differently across continents. In France and Spain, PCV13 introduction was followed by a rapid switch from GPSC10‑19A to GPSC10‑24F, driving nationwide pediatric IPD surges dominated by 24F. In Pakistan, post‑PCV13 data show declines in 19A/19F but expansion of GPSC10‑10A in both carriage and disease, highlighting adaptation to local serotype niches. Indian genomic surveillance suggests an emerging role of GPSC10, mainly with serotype 15B/C, with recent reports of rising 15B/15C disease albeit without genomic confirmation in all instances. In South Africa, GPSC10 expansion has involved serogroup 24 and 10A, with broader serotype diversity than in Europe and tight linkage to MDR. Newly published data from the Netherlands, Malawi, Ethiopia and Tunisia add further examples of GPSC10‑related vaccine escape profiles involving serotypes 19A and 3, again often coupled with resistance.

The article closes by linking these observations to current and pipeline vaccines. A concise comparison shows that PCV15 (Vaxneuvance) does not cover GPSC10‑linked NVTs 24F, 10A or 15B/C; PCV20 (Prevnar20) covers 10A and 15B (with cross‑protection to 15C via de‑O‑acetylated 15B) but still omits 24F; and the adult‑only PCV21 (Capvaxive) is the first to include 24F and 10A plus several other emerging NVTs, yet is not indicated for pediatric use. The authors argue that GPSC10 epitomizes the “next frontier” of pneumococcal vaccine escape and that its diverse regional replacement trajectories (24F in Europe, 10A in Pakistan, 15B/C in India, broader NVT mix in South Africa) underscore the need for sustained, country‑specific genomic surveillance to inform vaccine policy.

Comment
The above commentary provides a succinct and timely synthesis of how a single lineage, GPSC10, exemplifies modern pneumococcal vaccine escape, and it succeeds in shifting the reader’s focus from serotypes alone to the underlying genomic lineages. Its main strengths are the clear articulation of the three “dangerous” features of GPSC10—capsular switching, invasiveness and multidrug resistance—and the use of diverse regional examples to show how the same lineage can present as different serotypes in different epidemiologic contexts. The tables summarizing GPSC10‑mediated replacement and vaccine coverage against GPSC10‑linked NVTs are particularly useful for policy discussions, making explicit where current higher‑valent PCVs still have blind spots.

However, the evidence base is entirely observational, which means the associations described between PCV use, lineage shifts and resistance patterns cannot, by themselves, establish causality—this is a major limitation of such analyses. That said, the consistent temporal sequence of events across settings and the strong biological plausibility of vaccine‑driven selection make a causal relationship not only plausible but, to many readers, quite convincing. As a commentary, it remains inherently descriptive and depends on previously published genomic and epidemiologic studies without providing new data or quantitative risk estimates. Important issues such as the comparative contribution of GPSC10 versus other lineages to residual IPD, or modelling of the potential impact of pediatric PCV20 or future pediatric PCV21, are only implied rather than explored. The discussion of policy implications remains relatively general; more concrete guidance on surveillance design, data sharing, and how to prioritize serotypes in next‑generation vaccines would strengthen its utility for ministries of health and advisory groups.

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Bibliography
Zheng C, Zhang Y, Wang Y, et al. Two-case cluster of rapidly progressive influenza B and Staphylococcus aureus pneumonia with one death. Int J Infect Dis. 2026. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108442

Summary
This case report describes two previously healthy construction workers (39 and 36 years) who developed fulminant pneumonia after a shared occupational exposure, with one fatal and one surviving case. Both dismantled a brick wall without respiratory protection and developed high fever, dry cough, and sore throat within 48 hours, consistent with an initial influenza‑like illness.

By day 5, Case 1 presented in extremis with diffuse bilateral consolidation and early cavitation on chest CT and died within hours of admission from respiratory failure; no microbiologic samples were obtained, but the pattern was highly suggestive of necrotizing pneumonia. Case 2 was admitted on day 6 with severe pneumonia, septic shock, and multi‑organ failure (lactic acidosis, acute kidney and liver injury, myocardial and skeletal muscle involvement), alongside extensive bilateral pulmonary infiltrates with right‑sided predominance. Initial external PCR testing yielded a complex mixture of signals (S. aureus and rhinovirus in blood; Klebsiella pneumoniae and rhinovirus in sputum), leading to empiric therapy with teicoplanin, meropenem, peramivir, and low‑dose corticosteroids.

In‑house metagenomic next‑generation sequencing (mNGS) of sputum, and later BALF, clarified the picture by identifying influenza B virus and Panton–Valentine leukocidin (PVL)–positive methicillin‑susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) as the clinically relevant co‑pathogens, while reclassifying Klebsiella and rhinovirus as incidental. Despite transient improvement in systemic biomarkers (lactate, CRP, PCT), Case 2 developed persistent high‑grade fevers, rising leukocytosis, and radiographic progression to bilateral necrotizing pneumonia with cavitation, prompting bronchoscopy. BAL culture and mNGS confirmed abundant MSSA, and whole‑genome sequencing showed a PVL‑positive ST22 clone with a resistance profile limited to penicillin G, consistent with emerging community‑associated MSSA in China.

Teicoplanin was then replaced by linezolid to optimize lung tissue penetration, without other major changes in supportive care at that time. After this switch, fever and leukocytosis resolved, and CT on day 36 showed substantial radiological improvement, allowing discharge on day 38. The authors conclude that PVL‑positive MSSA, in synergy with influenza B, was the main driver of necrotizing lung injury and outcome, and they advocate for early mNGS and use of lung‑penetrant anti‑staphylococcal agents in similar scenarios.

Comment
This report is a compelling illustration of post‑influenza necrotizing pneumonia in previously healthy adults in which PVL‑producing MSSA, enabled by influenza‑mediated epithelial and innate‑immune disruption, is the dominant driver of fulminant lung destruction rather than “severe viral pneumonia” alone. The tightly aligned temporal data (brief flu‑like prodrome, abrupt respiratory collapse, early cavitation, leukopenia followed by marked neutrophilic rebound) and the mNGS‑based clarification of PVL‑positive ST22 MSSA plus influenza B as the true pathogen pair are major strengths, as is the pharmacologic rationale for switching from teicoplanin to linezolid, even though this remains an uncontrolled n=1 observation. Key limitations are the lack of microbiology in Case 1 and the absence of environmental or carriage studies, which preclude firm conclusions about transmission pathways. Clinically, the message is clear: in rapidly progressive, cavitating pneumonia after influenza, S. aureus—often PVL‑positive MSSA—should be assumed until disproven, with early deep sampling, high‑resolution diagnostics and lung‑penetrant anti‑staphylococcal therapy; more broadly, seasonal influenza vaccination, even in healthy young adults, may prevent not only viral illness but also such catastrophic bacterial superinfection and death.

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Bibliography
Mitjà O, Marks M. Household transmission of mpox in Africa: limited in adults but more prevalent in children. Lancet Infect Dis. 2026;26(2):117‑118. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00503-1

Summary
This comment interprets a prospective household cohort study from Burundi that followed 88 PCR‑confirmed clade Ib mpox index cases and >430 household contacts over 3 weeks during an active outbreak. Fewer than one in four households experienced any secondary cases, and most index cases generated only a single additional infection, indicating that, overall, households played a limited role in sustaining transmission among adults. The nuance for pediatrics is critical: children <15 years had a secondary attack rate (SAR) about three times higher than adults (≈9% vs 3%), and their household reproduction number was similarly higher, reflecting closer physical contact, shared sleeping spaces, and difficulty isolating.

A sensitivity analysis that reclassified all pediatric “index” cases as secondary cases more than doubled estimated SAR and R₀, suggesting that adults are often the true primary cases but present later because of stigma or delayed care‑seeking, while children are detected earlier. Notably, there was no association between transmission and household crowding, water access, or rural vs urban residence, supporting the view that most adult infections occur outside the home (often via sexual or intimate contact), with children infected secondarily. Methodological strengths include PCR‑confirmed index cases, clear case–contact linkages, high follow‑up and rigorous fieldwork; limitations include the absence of serology (asymptomatic infection likely missed), restriction of testing to symptomatic contacts, and convenience sampling that may limit generalizability.

Why these articles matter for daily practice
Taken together, these two pieces sharpen the clinical lens through which pediatricians and general clinicians should view mpox. First, they argue against complacency about vaccine‑induced protection: in smallpox‑naïve adults and adolescents, a standard two‑dose MVA‑BN regimen may not generate long‑lived neutralizing antibodies, implying that risk groups (including some health‑care workers and high‑exposure populations) may need booster strategies and that route and dose (full‑dose subcutaneous rather than fractional intradermal) are not trivial implementation details but immunologically meaningful choices. Second, the Burundi household data reframe children not as the primary engine of mpox epidemics but as vulnerable “downstream” victims of adult infections acquired in extra‑household settings, which has direct implications for case‑finding, counselling and safeguarding: when a child presents with suspected mpox, the clinician should actively look for undiagnosed adult cases in the network, address stigma, and ensure that household infection‑control advice is realistically tailored to close contact between children and caregivers. For routine practice, this translates into more precise risk communication, careful vaccination counselling for at‑risk families and staff, and a low threshold to consider mpox in children with compatible rash illness in African and travel‑exposed settings, even when the presumed “index” is an adult with a non‑sexual exposure story.

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Bibliography
Mitjà O, Marks M. The lasting lessons of mpox: infection, vaccination, and immune memory. Lancet Infect Dis. 2026;26(2):118‑119. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(25)00596-1

Summary
This commentary reviews a 2‑year cohort of 250 adults with orthopoxvirus exposure (natural mpox infection vs MVA‑BN vaccination) and distils practical lessons on durability and quality of immune memory. Natural mpox infection induced robust neutralizing antibodies that remained detectable for up to 2 years, whereas individuals vaccinated with MVA‑BN—especially those born after cessation of smallpox vaccination in the 1970s—showed weak and rapidly waning functional antibody responses, with neutralizing antibodies detectable in only a small minority beyond 8 months. People who had received historic, replication‑competent smallpox vaccines (e.g. Dryvax) and were later vaccinated with MVA‑BN had antibody titers similar to convalescent mpox cases, underlining the long‑term imprinting by live‑replicating vaccinia vaccines.

For practicing clinicians, the key message is that current third‑generation MVA‑BN vaccines are very safe, including in immunocompromised patients, but probably provide shorter‑lived functional protection than natural infection or older smallpox vaccines. Subcutaneous administration at full dose elicited higher binding and neutralizing antibody titers than fractional intradermal dosing, arguing for standard‑dose subcutaneous schedules in smallpox‑naïve individuals whenever supply allows. The authors emphasize that next‑generation mpox/smallpox vaccines will need to balance safety with more durable neutralizing responses, likely by focusing on key MPXV antigens such as E8 and A35 and optimizing antigen dose and delivery.

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Bibliography
Cohen M, Klein J, Montz E, Wong CA. The essential role of states in protecting immunization access. N Engl J Med. 2026;394(5):420‑422. doi:10.1056/NEJMp2517029

Summary
This Perspective outlines how recent U.S. federal policy shifts threaten long‑standing structures that guarantee broad, no‑cost access to recommended vaccines and how states can respond to protect immunization access. Historically, the FDA, CDC and ACIP have formed a coherent federal backbone: FDA licenses vaccines; ACIP issues evidence‑based recommendations; VFC and Affordable Care Act provisions then ensure no‑cost coverage and stable supply. The authors describe how this framework is being destabilized by the narrowing of Covid‑19 vaccine labels, ACIP votes to stop routine recommendations for Covid‑19 and thiomersal‑containing influenza vaccines without high‑quality supporting evidence, and website changes implying vaccine–autism links.

They highlight six main risk channels:

  1. Loss of no‑cost coverage if ACIP rescinds or narrows recommendations, unless states explicitly tie coverage to professional society guidelines (e.g., AAP) as well.
  2. Instability of the Vaccines for Children (VFC) program, because VFC eligibility is directly linked to the CDC schedule; removing or narrowing indications would abruptly cut off publicly purchased vaccines for millions of children.
  3. Disruption of school and child‑care entry requirements, many of which are pegged to CDC/ACIP recommendations.
  4. Constraints on who may vaccinate when scope‑of‑practice rules are tied to FDA labels or CDC recommendations.
  5. Increased clinician liability concerns if changes to VICP or PREP Act protections are made, potentially discouraging vaccination in off‑label or “shared clinical decision‑making” contexts.
  6. Expansion of “shared clinical decision‑making” language, which may reframe some vaccines as “optional,” increases documentation burden and confuses clinicians and the public.

The article then sets out an action agenda: states can mandate no‑cost coverage in Medicaid and regulated plans, build contingency procurement mechanisms (e.g,. Section 317 funds, state universal purchase), decouple school‑entry statutes from federal schedules by aligning instead with expert society recommendations, broaden vaccinator scope‑of‑practice, reaffirm liability protections, and invest in trusted messengers and surveillance for coverage and misinformation. While acknowledging that such efforts cannot fully replace coherent federal leadership, the authors argue that state action is essential to prevent backsliding to uneven vaccine access and resurgent vaccine‑preventable disease.

Comment: Global relevance
Although written for the current United States situation, this piece is a vivid case study of how vaccine access in practice is determined not only by national licensure and guidelines but by the decisions of sub‑national entities that control school requirements, procurement, reimbursement, and who is allowed to vaccinate. The dynamics describe fragile dependence on central technical bodies, rapid policy shifts driven by politics, and the need for local governments to improvise coverage, supply and communication strategies—are directly analogous to the situation in many countries where health and immunization are devolved to states, provinces, or even municipalities, often with limited in‑house vaccinology expertise. For clinicians and policy‑makers outside the U.S., the article is a reminder that robust vaccine access requires not just good science at the national level, but also strong, technically supported sub‑national governance that can buffer political shocks, maintain evidence‑based schedules, and prevent local gaps in expertise from eroding population protection.

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January 2026

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Bibliography:
Cai H, Jia B, Song Z, Wang L, Zhao S. Real-world safety of herpes zoster vaccines: A pharmacovigilance study based on the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (May 2006–December 2024). Vaccine. 2025;63:127628. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.127628

Conclusion:
In the VAERS database, recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV, Shingrix) shows a lower proportion of reported serious and fatal adverse events than live attenuated zoster vaccine (ZVL, Zostavax), with mainly transient local and systemic reactogenicity. No consistent signal emerged for anaphylaxis or syncope for either vaccine, while Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS) signals for RZV were method-dependent and remain hypothesis-generating.

Summary:
This pharmacovigilance study compared real-world safety profiles of ZVL and RZV using US VAERS data from May 2006 to December 2024. The authors extracted individual case safety reports (ICSRs) where zoster vaccines were reported alone or co-administered, and focused their main analyses on monotherapy ICSRs (>90% of all reports) to minimize confounding by other vaccines. They performed descriptive analyses, time-to-onset (TTO) analyses, and disproportionality analyses with special emphasis on designated/important medical events and three adverse events of special interest: anaphylaxis, GBS, and syncope.

Overall, 39,007 ZVL-alone and 69,195 RZV-alone ICSRs were identified. Among these, serious AEFIs were reported in 11.2% of ZVL vs 4.6% of RZV reports, and fatal outcomes in 0.5% vs 0.3%, respectively, acknowledging that these are proportions within reported events and not incidence rates. Most reports came from the US, and the majority of ICSRs for ZVL were pre-2017, consistent with subsequent preference for RZV and ZVL discontinuation in several countries. Females and individuals aged 60–69 years predominated among ICSRs for both vaccines, whereas serious AEFIs were more often reported in older patients and proportionally more often in males.

More than 80% of AEFIs occurred within 7 days of vaccination (notably 92.0% for RZV alone and 82.9% for ZVL alone), with a peak in the first 0–2 days; serious AEFIs tended to have longer TTO than non-serious events. For ZVL, median TTO was 6 days for serious vs 1 day for non-serious AEFIs; for RZV, 2 vs 1 day, respectively. RZV-related reports were dominated by systemic reactogenicity (pyrexia, pain, chills, headache, injection-site pain, fatigue, myalgia, nausea), whereas ZVL had strong signals for herpes zoster (including reactivation), vesicular rashes, and ocular/otologic complications.

At the SOC and HLT levels, ZVL generated more positive disproportionality signals than RZV, including infections, skin disorders, and herpes viral complications, while RZV signals clustered around reactogenicity and non-serious neurologic symptoms (e.g., “feelings and sensations NEC,” “administration site reactions NEC,” “dyssomnias”). At PT level, RZV’s top events were non-serious systemic and local reactions; for ZVL, “herpes zoster” and related cutaneous and ophthalmic manifestations had very high EBGM values. Using EMA DME/IME lists, ZVL – but not RZV – showed signals for blindness, unilateral blindness, deafness, neurosensory deafness, necrotizing retinitis, varicella zoster pneumonia, and polymyalgia rheumatica; RZV had one unique IME signal, injection-site necrosis.
For adverse events of special interest, no disproportionality signals were found for anaphylaxis or syncope for either vaccine, at PT or SMQ level. For GBS, ZVL showed no signal by any method, whereas RZV showed positive signals by ROR and BCPNN (both for PT and SMQ) but not by PRR or MGPS, highlighting inconsistency across methods and the hypothesis-generating nature of these findings. The authors emphasize that VAERS lacks denominator data and is subject to under- and stimulated reporting, so these data cannot provide incidence rates or establish causality; they conclude that RZV’s overall safety profile in routine use is reassuring and consistent with its preferential recommendation.

Comment:
The study’s main strengths are its very large sample size, long observation window (nearly two decades), and systematic use of multiple disproportionality methods with harmonized MedDRA coding, providing a granular, side-by-side view of RZV and ZVL across seriousness, timing, and clinically prioritized event categories. Focusing on monotherapy ICSRs, separating serious from non-serious events, and applying EMA DME/IME lists are good methodological choices that increase clinical interpretability, clearly differentiating expected, short-lived reactogenicity (predominant for RZV) from rare but more serious neurological and ophthalmic signals (more prominent for ZVL). The handling of GBS as an AESI, with explicit reporting of method-dependent signal detection, is also intellectually honest and aligns with ongoing regulatory surveillance, rather than over- or under-stating risk.

However, as with all spontaneous-report analyses, the results are constrained by well-known VAERS limitations: absence of denominator data and background rates, under-reporting of mild events, variable data quality, and potential stimulated reporting that may differ between vaccines and over time. The complicated poral separation between the ZVL and RZV eras, differences in indications (especially for immunocompromised adults), and evolving awareness around specific events such as GBS complicate direct comparative interpretation, as do unmeasured confounders like concurrent infections or comorbidities. In practice, these findings should be integrated with controlled epidemiologic data and clinical trial/meta-analytic evidence; viewed in that combined context, they support current policy that RZV is both more efficacious and, from a serious-AE perspective, at least as safe—and likely safer—than the legacy live vaccine, while reinforcing the need for continued, methodologically robust monitoring of rare events such as GBS.

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Bibliography:
Galar A, Sanz-Muñoz I, Eiros JM, et al. Serological protection against influenza and cardiovascular events in cardiac ICU patients during seasonal epidemics. Int J Infect Dis. 2026. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2026.108406

Conclusion
Influenza vaccination in high‑risk cardiac ICU patients not only improves “serological protection” but is also associated with fewer STEMIs, pulmonary emboli, and severe clinical courses. Influenza vaccination should become a routine cardioprotective intervention in patients with significant cardiovascular disease.

Summary:
This multicenter prospective observational study evaluated influenza vaccination status, serological protection, laboratory-confirmed influenza, and cardiovascular outcomes among patients admitted to cardiac intensive care units (C‑ICUs) in five Spanish tertiary hospitals over three influenza seasons (2017–2020). A total of 397 patients (median age 67 years, 67.3% male) were enrolled; 61.7% reported prior influenza vaccination, and 48.9% had pre‑existing cardiovascular disease. Systematic testing with Xpert Xpress Flu/RSV identified laboratory-confirmed influenza in 23 patients (5.8%), all influenza A, while all patients underwent serologic testing for antibodies against vaccine strains of A(H1N1) pdm09, A(H3N2), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata using hemagglutination inhibition assays

“Seroprotection”, defined as antibody titers ≥1:40, was markedly higher for influenza A than B (84.6% vs 37.5%, p<0.001), and higher in vaccinated than unvaccinated patients across all strains. The strongest “seroprotection” rate and geometric mean titers (GMTs) were observed for A(H3N2), followed by A(H1N1) pdm09, B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata. Despite similar proportions of laboratory-confirmed influenza among vaccinated and unvaccinated patients (6.1% vs 5.3%, p=0.827), vaccinated individuals showed significantly higher GMTs overall, with a particularly high A(H3N2) GMT in those who developed influenza, consistent with an anamnestic response.

Clinically, vaccinated patients were older, had more comorbidities, and a higher age-adjusted Charlson index, but experienced fewer severe cardiovascular events. Compared with unvaccinated patients, vaccination was associated with lower rates of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) (28.2% vs 40.8%, p=0.009), pulmonary embolism (0.8% vs 4.6%, p=0.014), and myocarditis (0% vs 3.3%, p=0.004) at admission, and fewer severe clinical presentations during C‑ICU stay (53.1% vs 67.1%, p=0.006). In multivariate analyses, non‑vaccination independently predicted STEMI (OR 1.808, 95% CI 1.158–2.822), pulmonary embolism (OR 7.850, 95% CI 1.580–39.003), and severe clinical presentation (OR for vaccination 0.605, 95% CI 0.389–0.942).

Lower antibody titers were associated with worse cardiovascular outcomes: reduced GMTs against A(H3N2) and B/Victoria were linked to higher STEMI incidence, while lower A(H1N1) GMTs correlated with cardiogenic shock, cardiorespiratory arrest, and pulmonary embolism, and low H3N2 titers also related to pulmonary embolism. Overall, influenza-attributable mortality was low, and ICU/hospital length of stay did not differ significantly by vaccination status, but influenza-positive patients had more severe complications and longer hospitalization than influenza-negative patients. The authors conclude that in high‑risk cardiac ICU populations, influenza vaccination enhances “seroprotection”—especially against A(H3N2)—and is associated with reduced STEMI, pulmonary embolism, and severe clinical courses, supporting systematic vaccination of cardiac patients as part of inpatient management during influenza seasons.

Comment:
We had covered before that after years of evidence had been generated, influenza vaccination is now more and more acknowledged as a significant mean to prevent cardiac events (ViVa 46, 2025).  This study now usefully links detailed serology with hard cardiovascular endpoints in a high‑risk C‑ICU population, using a prospective multicenter design, systematic virologic testing, and standardized EMA‑aligned assays. The associations between vaccination, higher strain‑specific antibody titers, and lower rates of STEMI, pulmonary embolism, and severe presentations are biologically plausible and consistent with existing data on influenza as a cardiovascular trigger, reinforcing the cardioprotective potential of influenza vaccination.

Nonetheless, the non‑randomized design, differential baseline characteristics (including younger age in the unvaccinated group), lack of pre‑vaccination and follow‑up sera, and small number of influenza cases (in subgroups) limit causal inference and strain‑specific conclusions. Even so, the work highlights a clear gap in vaccine uptake among eligible cardiac patients and adds weight to positioning influenza vaccination as a standard component of secondary prevention in cardiology care pathways.

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Bibliography:
Kimathi D, Juan-Giner A, Bob NS, et al. Low-dose yellow fever vaccination in infants: a randomised, double-blind, non-inferiority trial. Lancet. 2026; Published online January 13, 2026. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)02069-0

Summary:
This randomized, double-blind, non-inferiority trial evaluated whether a very low-dose yellow fever vaccine (500 IU) is sufficiently immunogenic in infants aged 9–12 months compared with the standard dose (>13 000 IU) of the 17D‑204 vaccine from Institut Pasteur de Dakar. The trial was conducted at two centers in Kenya and Uganda, and co-administered the yellow fever vaccine with the measles–rubella vaccine to mirror the routine WHO Expanded Program on Immunization schedule.

A total of 420 infants with no prior yellow fever vaccination or infection were enrolled between Oct 7, 2021, and June 14, 2023, and randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either the standard dose or 500 IU. The primary endpoint was seroconversion at day 28, defined as a four-fold or greater rise in neutralizing antibodies measured by PRNT50, with a non‑inferiority margin of −10 percentage points for the difference in seroconversion rates between groups. The safety population included all vaccinated infants, and serious adverse events (SAEs) were carefully monitored.

In the per‑protocol population, seroconversion at day 28 reached 99% (177/179; 95% CI 96–100) in the standard‑dose group and 93% (166/179; 95% CI 88–96) in the 500 IU group. The absolute difference was −6.15 percentage points (95% CI −10.27 to −2.02), crossing the predefined −10 percentage‑point non‑inferiority margin at the lower bound; consequently, non‑inferiority of the 500 IU dose could not be concluded. Seroconversion rates at day 10 and at 1 year were also consistently lower in the 500 IU group than in the standard‑dose group, reinforcing that the infant response to 500 IU is suboptimal.

Twelve SAEs occurred during the study (eight in the 500 IU group and four in the standard‑dose group), including pneumonia, malaria, and other common pediatric conditions, but none were judged related to vaccination. No post‑vaccination viraemia was detected in infants in either arm, in contrast to low‑frequency viraemia observed in adults given similar doses in prior work, and no new safety signals emerged. Overall, both doses were well tolerated.

The authors place their findings in the context of previous fractional‑dose studies. Adult trials in Brazil and in the same Kenyan and Ugandan communities had shown that doses around 500–600 IU were non‑inferior to the standard dose, with sustained immunogenicity up to several years. In children, earlier fractional‑dose trials used much higher potencies (one‑fifth of a very high‑potency standard dose, still ≥13 000 IU) and found non‑inferior immunogenicity compared with full dose, but these regimens remained well above the WHO minimum potency requirement of 1000 IU. This infant trial is the first to test a dose close to the minimum adult “effective” potency in children.

The study also reviews evidence that neutralizing antibody responses after full‑dose infant yellow fever vaccination can wane substantially over time, with some cohorts dropping to 28–59% seropositivity within a few years. Against that backdrop, the authors argue that any deliberate reduction in infant dose needs to be judged not only on short‑term seroconversion but also on durability, especially in routine EPI contexts where long‑term protection is desirable. They acknowledge that, in severe outbreak scenarios with extreme supply constraints, a modestly lower seroconversion rate from low‑dose regimens might be acceptable, but emphasize that this trade‑off is context‑specific and not suitable for routine programs.

Limitations include the restriction to two East African sites, which may limit generalizability to other endemic regions, and potential influences of co‑administered EPI vaccines and local flavivirus epidemiology (including dengue) on antibody patterns. Nonetheless, the main conclusion is clear: minimum effective-dose data derived from adults cannot simply be extrapolated to infants, and standard yellow fever doses should continue to be used for infants in routine immunization.

Comment:
This trial is an important reminder of a fundamental principle in vaccine development: start by demonstrating solid safety and robust efficacy at a dose that clearly works, and only then explore whether you can safely economize on antigen. The 500 IU yellow fever dose looked attractive on paper, backed by strong adult data and real supply‑pressure arguments, but in infants it fell just short of the non‑inferiority bar—precisely the kind of marginal underdosing that can quietly erode program impact.

From a development and regulatory perspective, this is a cautionary tale: a phase 3 failure due to underdosing cannot be “rescued” later by post‑hoc explanations or modest protocol tweaks. Once a key target population has been shown to respond suboptimally at a chosen dose, the label, the confidence of NITAGs, and the reputational capital of the product all suffer. The correct sequence is therefore: prove the vaccine at a clearly effective dose, then consider dose‑sparing, fractional schedules, or lower‑potency formulations in carefully designed follow‑up trials. This paper does not argue against dose‑sparing; it argues against skipping steps. In the rush to stretch supply, it quietly insists that nothing is gained if a vaccine program fails because the pivotal trial tried to do “more with less” and delivered less protection instead.

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Bibliography:
Whitaker M, Elliott J, Gerard-Ursin I, et al. Profiling vaccine attitudes and subsequent uptake in 1.1 million people in England: a nationwide cohort study. Lancet. 2025; Published online January 12, 2025. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01912-9vaccine-attitude-profilimng.pdf

Summary:
The paper reports a nationwide cohort analysis of 1,137,927 adults in England, nested within the REACT studies, to characterize COVID‑19 vaccine attitudes and link them to subsequent objectively recorded vaccine uptake. Using data from January 2021 to March 2022, the authors define “hesitant” participants as those refusing, planning to refuse, or undecided about COVID‑19 vaccination, after excluding respondents whose self‑reported unvaccinated status conflicted with NHS records.

Overall, 3.3% (37,982) of adults expressed some degree of vaccine hesitancy during the study period, with a dynamic pattern over time. Hesitancy peaked at 8.0% early in 2021, fell to 1.1% at the start of 2022, and then rose again to 2.2% in early 2022, suggesting that attitudes evolved alongside the pandemic and the vaccination program. Among 24 229 hesitant participants who consented to data linkage, 65.0% (15, 744) ultimately received at least one COVID‑19 vaccine dose, allowing the authors to distinguish between “softer” and more persistent forms of hesitancy.

The analytical approach combines cross‑sectional logistic regression for determinants of hesitancy with longitudinal modelling of uptake in the hesitant cohort. Consensus clustering of self‑reported reasons for hesitancy yields eight stable attitudinal categories, such as concerns about vaccine effectiveness, fear of side‑effects or health consequences, perception of personal low risk from COVID‑19, mistrust of vaccine developers, and more generalized anti‑vaccine sentiment. Sociodemographic predictors of hesitancy are consistent with prior literature: higher hesitancy among some ethnic minority groups and among less‑educated and economically disadvantaged individuals.

A key finding is that not all forms of hesitancy behave the same way over time. The most prevalent categories—those rooted in effectiveness and safety concerns—declined markedly during the roll‑out and were not strongly associated with remaining unvaccinated later. In other words, many people who started out worried about side effects or efficacy eventually accepted vaccination, presumably as more real‑world data, social norms, and communication accumulated. By contrast, hesitancy grounded in low trust (in institutions or developers), low perceived risk from COVID‑19, or broad anti‑vaccine attitudes proved more “hard‑core”: these forms rebounded in 2022 and were strongly associated with failure to get vaccinated.

The temporal uptick in hesitancy in 2022 appears largely driven by a changing risk landscape: as perceived severity and threat of COVID‑19 diminished, complacency‑type attitudes gained ground. The authors situate their taxonomy of hesitancy in relation to psychological models such as the 5C/7C frameworks, arguing that their data‑driven clusters offer empirical traction on which types of hesitancy are most amenable to change. Methodologically, the study’s novelty lies in linking baseline attitude data with individual‑level, prospectively recorded NHS vaccination histories, rather than relying on self‑reported uptake.

The discussion emphasizes that most COVID‑19 vaccine hesitancy in this large English sample was “reversible” given time, information, and experience with the vaccine program. However, persistent pockets associated with distrust and low perceived risk remain a substantial challenge for public health, especially as future vaccination campaigns may face a backdrop of pandemic fatigue and misinformation. The authors acknowledge limitations, including potential selection bias from non‑consent to data linkage (more common among the hesitant), recall and reporting biases in survey data, incomplete capture of reasons for hesitancy across all rounds, and the lack of detailed timing analyses relative to eligibility or infection history. They conclude that their characterization of hesitancy “subtypes” and their reversibility can help design more targeted communication and interventions in future roll‑outs.

Comment:
This study is important because it moves beyond cross‑sectional attitude snapshots and links stated vaccine hesitancy to actual, objectively recorded vaccination behavior in over one million adults, something previous work had not done at this scale. The use of NHS vaccination records avoids the familiar problem of misreported uptake and permits a more credible classification of which forms of reluctance truly predict continued non‑vaccination.

The data‑driven clustering of hesitancy reasons is a methodological strength, reducing reliance on a priori psychological taxonomies while still aligning meaningfully with established 5C/7C constructs. The distinction between “soft” hesitancy (safety/efficacy concerns) that largely melts away and “harder” forms rooted in distrust, low perceived risk, and general anti‑vaccine sentiment is highly actionable: it suggests that generic safety messaging may be sufficient for one group but largely wasted on the other. For program design, this supports stratified communication strategies—reassurance and data for the anxious; trust‑building, community engagement, and structural interventions for the distrustful and complacent.

Limitations are non‑trivial. The cohort is from England and a specific vaccine, so generalizability to other settings, diseases, or more polarized contexts is uncertain. Hesitant individuals were less likely to consent to linkage, plausibly underestimating the most entrenched hesitancy, and reasons captured at a single timepoint may not fully reflect evolving attitudes. Nonetheless, for public health planners, the key message is that most hesitancy is not an immutable trait but a modifiable state—provided that communication, trust, and perceived risk are addressed honestly and intelligently. As future pandemics and routine adult programs compete for attention in an infodemic, this paper offers rare quantitative evidence on where effort is most likely to shift actual behavior, rather than just survey responses.

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Bibliography:
Lassen MCH, Johansen ND, Christensen SH, et al.
RSV Prefusion F Vaccine for Prevention of Hospitalization in Older Adults. N Engl J Med. 2026;394(2):138-151. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2509810.RSV-pre-f-in-adult.pdf

Summary:
DAN‑RSV was a large, pragmatic, randomized phase 4 trial in Denmark in which 131,276 adults ≥60 years were allocated to a single dose of RSVpreF or no vaccine, with outcomes ascertained exclusively via high‑quality national registries. The primary endpoint—hospitalization for RSV‑related respiratory disease—was reduced from 0.66 to 0.11 events per 1000 person‑years, corresponding to 83.3% vaccine effectiveness (95% CI, 42.9–96.9), and similar protection was seen for RSV‑related lower respiratory tract hospitalization (≈92% effectiveness). A smaller but statistically significant 15.2% reduction in all‑cause respiratory hospitalization suggests broader clinical impact but also highlights that RSV is only one contributor to winter respiratory burden. Strengths include scale, representativeness, and consistency between intention‑to‑treat and as‑treated analyses; key limitations are under‑testing for RSV, fewer events than planned, open‑label design, and restriction to a single high‑income setting. Safety over six weeks was reassuring, with similar serious adverse event rates and no Guillain–Barré Cases observed.

Opinion:
This trial represents a mature next step in RSV vaccine evaluation, moving from classical efficacy endpoints to genuinely policy‑relevant outcomes such as hospitalization and cardiorespiratory events. The use of a nationwide, registry‑based randomized design is particularly compelling for adult vaccines, where implementation questions and absolute risk reductions matter more than rarefied trial conditions. For decision‑makers, an 80%+ reduction in RSV‑related hospitalizations, on top of a modest but significant reduction in all‑cause respiratory admissions, is likely sufficient to justify well‑targeted RSVpreF programs in older adults, especially in systems already straining under winter bed pressure. At the same time, the modest effect on all‑cause endpoints and the under‑testing for RSV argue against over‑extrapolation to younger age groups or lower‑risk adults. Future work should refine which subgroups (e.g., ≥75 years, cardiopulmonary disease, frailty) derive the greatest absolute benefit and explore the durability of protection and safety over multiple seasons.

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Bibliography:
MacPherson A, Hutchinson N, Schneider O, et al. Probability of Success and Timelines for the Development of Vaccines for Emerging and Reemerged Viral Infectious Diseases. Ann Intern Med. 2020;174(3):326‑334. doi:10.7326/M20‑5350.

Critical Opinion:
This study is methodologically rigorous and offers a sobering counterpoint to politically optimistic vaccine development promises, particularly those made early in the COVID19 pandemic. Its strength lies in relying exclusively on public, non-proprietary data, ensuring transparency and reproducibility. However, because the dataset heavily features influenza and HIV vaccines—fields with unique developmental dynamics—the aggregate probability of success (POS) may underestimate or overestimate prospects for other pathogens. A more substantive limitation is the manuscript’s focus on FDA approvals, which excludes vaccines licensed elsewhere (e.g., in Europe, China or India). The U.S. centric outcome measure unintentionally conflates scientific failure with jurisdictional regulatory pathways. Moreover, while the authors acknowledge preclinical and manufacturing timelines, their exclusion likely understates the full developmental burden. Nonetheless, the article succeeds in illustrating the structural barriers that have long constrained vaccine innovation and provides an invaluable empirical baseline against which the extraordinary speed of COVID19 vaccine development can be contextualized.

Summary:
MacPherson et al. present one of the most comprehensive empirical assessments to date of clinical development outcomes for vaccines targeting emerging and reemerging viral infectious diseases (EVIDs). Motivated by the uncertainty surrounding COVID19 vaccine development timelines in 2020, the authors evaluate success probabilities and development durations across 23 viral diseases using publicly available data from ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO databases, FDA records, and supplementary literature. Their core objective is to estimate the likelihood that a vaccine entering phase 2 trials will achieve FDA licensure within ten years, offering a realistic benchmark against which pandemic era expectations can be measured.

The authors identify 606 eligible clinical trials representing 220 distinct development “trajectories” initiated between 2005 and March 2020. Only 76 of these trajectories advanced beyond phase 1 and were therefore included in the primary probability of success (POS) analysis. The results reveal starkly modest success rates: just 10% of vaccine candidates entering phase 2 achieved FDA approval within the subsequent decade. When influenza vaccines—beneficiaries of mature platforms—are excluded, the probability drops to 3.2%, underscoring the substantial difficulty of bringing non-influenza viral vaccines to market.

Timelines are similarly long and variable. Among approved vaccines, the average time from phase 2 initiation to FDA approval was 4.4 years, with outliers ranging from six weeks (rapid approvals of H1N1 pandemic vaccines) to nearly 14 years (the H5N1 vaccine Audenz). The study identifies only nine approvals among the 220 trajectories, most of which were pandemic influenza vaccines, along with Ervebo (Ebola) and Dengvaxia (dengue). These findings reinforce that regulatory licensure represents only a narrow apex in a wide pyramid of failures, attrition, and stalled development.

Phase transition probabilities offer additional insight: 38.2% of phase 1 candidates advanced to phase 2, 38.3% of phase 2 candidates advanced to phase 3, and 61.1% of phase 3 candidates ultimately obtained approval. Even so, the absolute number of vaccines approaching licensure remained small. A sensitivity analysis examined whether discontinuations coincided with “outbreak quelling”—periods in which disease incidence fell to zero for twelve months. Although roughly oneq uarter of failed trajectories ended during such quiescent periods, overall, POS changed minimally when these were excluded. This suggests that biological, technical, commercial, and logistical hurdles—not merely diminishing disease incidence—explain most vaccine failures.

The study’s stratified analyses reveal substantial heterogeneity across vaccine types. Split-virus influenza vaccines had by far the highest success probability (56.4%), reflecting their reliance on well established production platforms. Nucleic acid vaccines—representing early predecessors to mRNA COVID19 vaccines—showed a low but nonzero approval probability (5.9%). Whole pathogen and subunit vaccines in this dataset failed to produce a single FDA approval within ten years of phase 2 initiation. Sponsorship also mattered: trajectories involving large pharmaceutical companies exhibited considerably higher success probabilities (30.5%) than those led by government, small companies, or philanthropic organizations.

MacPherson et al. emphasize that their POS estimates represent historically observed rates, not forecasting tools for COVID19 development. Nonetheless, their findings highlight why expectations for pandemic speed vaccine development should be tempered by an appreciation of systemic obstacles. Most EVIDs lack the robust scientific groundwork, prior vaccine platforms, or strong commercial incentives that supported the historically accelerated development of pandemic influenza vaccines. Furthermore, the biological novelty of pathogens like SARSCoV2 compounds uncertainty, particularly concerning immune responses, safety risks such as vaccine dependent enhancement, and the performance of novel platforms like mRNA and viral vectors.

The authors also note that global collaboration, unprecedented funding, and parallelized clinical trial phases may accelerate pandemic-era vaccine development beyond historical norms. Even so, foundational limitations remain: regulatory requirements for safety, the time needed to accrue trial endpoints, and the high attrition intrinsic to immunobiology.

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Bibliography:
Koumba Maniaga R, Bang Ntamack JA, Mintsa‑Mi‑Nkama E, et al. Congenital measles: A case highlighting challenges in clinical interventions in a developing country. Int J Infect Dis. 2026;163:108215. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2025.108215.

Critical Opinion:
This case report is a stark reminder that congenital measles—once nearly eradicated—remains a preventable tragedy in regions where immunization systems falter. The authors effectively demonstrate how a chain of structural deficits—low maternal vaccination, absent antenatal care, diagnostic scarcity, and lack of immunoglobulin availability—transformed a manageable public health failure into a fatal neonatal emergency. The article underscores that measles elimination is not merely a biomedical challenge but a societal one.

Summary:
This case report documents a rare but severe instance of congenital measles in Libreville, Gabon, emphasizing the interplay between low vaccine coverage, diagnostic limitations, and therapeutic scarcity in resource limited settings. The authors present the clinical course of a preterm infant born to an unvaccinated young mother during an ongoing measles epidemic, offering a compelling illustration of how systemic gaps compound individual vulnerability.

The article opens by establishing measles as an exceptionally contagious viral disease with significant morbidity in unvaccinated populations. The background section situates the case within the shifting epidemiology of measles: although traditionally a childhood infection, declining vaccine coverage in many regions has expanded susceptibility to adults, including pregnant women—an especially high risk group. In Gabon, recurrent outbreaks since 2013 reflect persistent immunization gaps, making congenital measles once again a relevant clinical concern.

The reported newborn was delivered at 32 weeks and 2 days to a 19yearold primiparous mother who had neither vaccination history nor antenatal followup. Her symptoms—fever, conjunctivitis, coryza, and maculopapular rash—began in the week preceding delivery, fitting classic measles presentation. The infant appeared initially stable but deteriorated rapidly: respiratory distress within 15 minutes of birth, generalized hypotonia, hypoglycemia, and tachycardia. Notably, no rash was present at birth, but by day 4 he developed highg rade fever, macular rash, and a hemorrhagic syndrome.

Laboratory findings demonstrated progressive leukopenia, lymphopenia, thrombocytopenia, elevated inflammatory markers (CRP, PCT), and evolving anemia. Radiography remained normal. Crucially, neither serologic testing nor anti‑measles immunoglobulins were available—a major limitation that delayed confirmation and prevented immunoprophylactic intervention. PCR testing, performed offsite, confirmed measles in both mother and infant, with a higher viral load in the newborn (Ct 26), underscoring active congenital infection. The infant died on day 7 from septic shock with multiorgan failure.

The authors situate this case within broader public‑health failures rather than purely clinical misfortune. Congenital measles has become rare in the post‑vaccination era, but its re‑emergence aligns with global declines in routine immunization. This case illustrates that prevention—timely measles vaccination among women of reproductive age—is the primary defense, as no specific antiviral therapy exists. While post‑exposure immunoglobulin prophylaxis has evidence of benefit, its unavailability in Gabon removed the single potentially effective intervention for this neonate.

The report also exposes diagnostic inequities: simple IgM serology, a globally standard test, could not be performed. Rapid confirmation of measles is critical in neonates given their high risk of fulminant progression. The week‑long delay in PCR results rendered the diagnosis clinically retrospective rather than actionable.

Furthermore, the infant’s prematurity compounded his vulnerability. Measles during pregnancy is associated with complications including miscarriage, preterm birth, and maternal morbidity. Literature cited in the article indicates elevated neonatal mortality due to infection‑related complications, mirroring this case’s trajectory toward sepsis and hemorrhagic manifestations.

A key strength is the authors’ integration of clinical detail with public‑health analysis. By documenting laboratory trends, clinical evolution, and resource gaps, the report becomes a multi‑layered case study with implications for policy.

However, the article’s reliance on a single case limits its generalizability, though this is inherent to case reports. Another limitation is the absence of discussion on differential diagnosis during the infant’s early presentation; sepsis versus congenital infection distinctions could have been explored more fully. Additionally, while the authors reference national vaccination gaps, more contextual data on Gabon’s immunization infrastructure or barriers to maternal healthcare attendance would have strengthened the systemic critique.

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