Shall we invest in research on HIV, tuberculosis and malaria?

This study presents a rigorous global modelling analysis of optimal investment strategies to combat HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and malaria in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals, focusing on the portfolio of countries eligible for Global Fund support between 2027 and 2029. Using epidemiological and economic models endorsed by international technical agencies, the authors estimated financial resource needs, quantified potential health impacts, and calculated returns on investment within the constraints of projected funding trajectories. Across 129 Global Fund–eligible countries, the aggregated programmatic resource requirement for the three diseases during 2027–2029 is projected at US$1,406 billion. Of this, approximately 79% (US$1,113 billion) is likely to be available through domestic sources, Global Fund replenishment (US$180 billion), and other donors (US$236 billion), leaving a substantial funding gap. Under scale-up assumptions, optimal resource allocation could avert up to 23 million deaths and prevent 400 million cases or new infections. By 2029, this would translate into...