Impact of Haitian cholera epidemic underestimated

Current projections regarding the eventual size and extent of the cholera epidemic in Haiti may greatly underestimate the potential number of cases, according to a report that will appear in The Lancet and has been released online. A mathematical model based on current knowledge about the transmission and course of the diarrheal disease arrives at estimates of new cases through November 2011 that almost double those currently projected by the United Nations. The model also reflects the probable impact of public health measures designed to combat the epidemic. “Our findings suggest that more resources are needed than may be currently planned,” says lead author Jason Andrews, MD, of the Massachusetts General Hospital Division of Infectious Diseases. “The number of cases is currently falling, but this is the natural history of an epidemic, and cholera may continue to exact a significant toll over the next year as it becomes established in Haiti.” Before the...