The ‘Kraken’ subvariant XBB.1.5 sounds scary, but behind the headlines are clues to where COVID’s heading

The XBB.1.5 subvariant, known informally as “Kraken”, is the latest in a menagerie of Omicron subvariants to dominate the headlines, following increasing detection in the United States and United Kingdom. But there have been few cases of XBB.1.5 in Australia so far. And its nickname – a mythical sea monster – may be causing unnecessary fear. Yet XBB.1.5 and other subvariants do signal a change in how the virus is mutating. Here’s what this means for Australia and globally. We’ve had multiple Omicron waves From Australia’s first major wave of transmission in the summer of 2021-22 through to late 2022, we’ve had a series of COVID waves, each dominated by a single Omicron subvariant: BA.1, then BA.2 and then BA.5. Although each new subvariant has played an important role in driving these waves of transmission, we should expect waves like this even in the absence of new variants. This cyclical pattern of waves of increased infections...