Social clustering influenced spread of Ebola virus in West Africa

Significant social clustering could to be a factor in the transmission of Ebola virus disease in West Africa, according to recent findings. Researchers collected 78 Ebola virus genome sequences from more than 70% of the confirmed cases occurring in Sierra Leone during June. A transmission-oriented phylodynamic model, which assumes a time-based evolutionary reconstruction of the viral dynamics, was then applied to the genome sequences. Transmission chains using a Bayesian approach on the same genomic information. With this data, researchers used a complementary Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed (SEIR) network model to approximate clustering based on confirmed Ebola virus disease cases and deaths, deducing criteria for a clustered (φ>0) and nonclustered population (φ=0). SEIR models parameters were fit to the aggregate numbers of confirmed Ebola virus cases and laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease deaths documented in WHO Global Alert and Response news between May 27 and Aug. 31, 2014. The researchers found that the best-fit phylodynamic...