Modeling the impact of vaccination for the immunization agenda 2030: Deaths averted against 14 pathogens in 194 countries from 2021 to 2030

Summary This analysis provides a comprehensive estimate of the future global lives saved through vaccination, modeling the projected mortality benefits if all countries achieve high coverage for 14 key vaccine-preventable diseases from 2021 to 2030. Leveraging demographic modeling and existing vaccine impact frameworks, the study calculates age-specific and country-specific mortality reductions based on scaling coverage to ambitious global targets. Vaccines for diseases such as measles, hepatitis B, pertussis, and others have been evaluated for their contribution to death reduction among children and adults worldwide. Methods Projection Method: The projection uses a combination of mathematical models and epidemiological data for vaccine efficacy and disease burden, relying on empirical estimates and extrapolating risks for less-modeled regions. Pathogen Coverage: For ten major pathogens, measures were calculated directly with sophisticated consortium models; for diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, and tuberculosis, global burden and efficacy literature were incorporated. Population Estimates: Population estimates were based on United Nations sources; the analysis assumed scale-up of all recommended...