Mathematical model predicts long-term effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine booster doses in different patient populations

Researchers have designed a mathematical model that can predict the course of vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 in different patient populations—including otherwise healthy individuals and those who have cancer or suppressed immune responses—over the long term. The model, which was developed by a Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH)–led team in collaboration with scientists at the University of Cyprus, also makes predictions under potential future scenarios (such as the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with greater immune evasion) and reveals the benefits of the new bivalent vaccines. The model builds on the investigators’ previously developed mathematical framework that they used to understand why treatment responses vary widely among people with COVID-19 and to identify biological markers related to these different responses, published in PNAS in 2021. In this latest work, which is also published in PNAS, the scientists addressed the need for predictions of vaccine effectiveness over time. “We used this model to simulate how differences in viral,...